Poultry product and vegetable prices spike, further limiting household access to nutrient-dense foods

The reduced provision of humanitarian food assistance in many areas has increased market dependence among many households. At the same time, purchasing power is declining due to continuously rising prices. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes are expected to remain widespread across the country; however, an increasing number of poor households are likely to face large food consumption gaps, leading to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes in Hajjah, Marib, Lahj, and Abyan during the agricultural off-season from August to October. By November, seasonal improvements in access to food and income from the main harvest will likely improve area-level outcomes to Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) in Hajjah, Lahj, and Abyan. However, given the high proportion of displaced households with dependence on assistance, Marib is expected to remain in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) through January.

Livestock prices increased nationwide prior to the Eid al Adha holidays in early July. However, in IRG-controlled areas, price increases were significant and beyond what is typical for this time of year, according to key informants. Given high prices and weakened purchasing power across middle and better-off wealth groups, sheep sales were below normal in IRG-controlled areas. This has likely restricted access to income for livestock owners at a time when livestock sales typically provide a main source of household income. 

Although 250,000 tons of wheat have been imported from India since April, government authorities in IRG-controlled areas and top local traders nationwide continue to express concern over low levels of available stocks. As of late July, traders estimated that available stocks would be sufficient to fulfill the country’s consumption requirements through September. The agreement between Ukraine and Russia, reached on July 23, to resume Ukrainian wheat exports has likely contributed to some optimism among market actors and, consequently, some downward pressure on wheat prices. However, even if the agreement is successfully implemented imminently, Ukrainian wheat would likely not improve domestic supply in Yemen before October/November. Shortages will likely force traders to turn to higher-priced Australian and American wheat for milling, which will further increase prices and reduce domestic consumption as additional households are priced out of the market.

Prices of basic food commodities have reportedly remained generally stable from June to July, according to key informants, though at levels significantly higher than the same time last year. However, poultry product prices (live chickens and eggs) rose across the country in June and July. In SBA-controlled areas where most poultry products are produced, price increases are being driven by rising production costs, which are linked to some typical increases due to the hotter summer temperatures and some atypical increases due to rising poultry feed prices (which were previously mostly imported from Russia and/or Ukraine). In IRG-controlled areas, prices have increased even more significantly due to recently raised taxes on chickens and eggs at checkpoints. According to key informants, egg prices have increased by more than 20 percent in Aden. This is further limiting access to important sources of protein and nutrients for millions of households.

Above-average rainfall in July has replenished water sources for farmland irrigation, generally contributing positively to rainfed agricultural production. However, heavy rainfall in highland areas has caused localized damage to crops and prevented many farmers from harvesting their products, with vegetable prices rising across the country in early July, at least partially due to reduced supply. Additionally, flash flooding in July caused extensive damage to public infrastructure, homes, and property. Sana'a, Sa’adah, Amran, Sana'a City, Shabwah, Hadramout, Al Maharah, and Hajjah governorates were worst affected. According to OCHA, around 86,000 people were affected by floods between July 15 and 26, including at least 10,000 displaced families in Marib and 244 displaced families in Al Jawf who were severely affected. At least 29 people—including children—were reportedly killed by floods in Abyan, Al Mahwit, Dhamar, Raymah, Sana’a, and Shabwah, according to local authorities.