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Increased conflict and high fuel prices driving Crisis-level food insecurity

  • Food Security Outlook
  • Yemen
  • October 2014
Increased conflict and high fuel prices driving Crisis-level food insecurity

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • Conflict and rising levels of insecurity continue to disrupt markets and livelihoods in many parts of the country. Conflict may disrupt agricultural production in some areas during the second season harvest between October and January 2015, especially in Ibb, Al Bayda, Sana’a, Marib, and Al Hudaydah Governorates.

    • The harvests for sorghum, wheat, and millet are expected to be average, after average to above-average rainfall during the second rain season between July and October 2014. However, the late start to the first rain season affected production of some crops including legumes and coffee, especially in the central highlands of Sa’ada, Al Mahwiet, Amran, Dhamar, Sana’a, Al Bayda, and Raymah Governorates.

    • Fuel shortages, particularly from April to July, were followed by an increase in fuel prices across Yemen after the reduction in subsidies took effect in August 2014. The average diesel price for July-to-September was 48 percent higher than the average price for April-to-June. Disruptions in the fuel market have led to increased food prices, with the cereal component of the consumer price index (CPI) rising by 16 percent from January to September 2014.

    • Continued conflict is likely to limit food access in affected areas, especially for displaced households, those who lost assets during previous displacement, and households that have diminished coping capacity due to recurrent shocks in recent years. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity is expected to continue in many areas of the country through March 2015. Households most affected by these factors may face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes.

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    To project food security outcomes, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario for the coming eight months. Learn more here.

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