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Political instability and macroeconomic disruptions will likely worsen food security outcomes

  • Food Security Outlook
  • Yemen
  • January 2015
Political instability and macroeconomic disruptions will likely worsen food security outcomes

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • Oil production, which represents over 70 percent of total government revenue, was suspended in January in the major oil producing governorates of Shabwah and Hadramaut, and is likely to be disrupted in Ma’rib due to the ongoing political crisis. Saudi Arabia and other regional partners have suspended much of their assistance to Yemen, placing further pressure on government revenue. The Yemeni rial is likely to depreciate against the dollar and other international currencies.

    • Declining supply of cooking gas has led to a 30 to 40 percent increase in prices in January. Shortages of cooking gas may worsen if the current political tension in Ma’rib deteriorates, as this governorate supplies cooking gas to Sana’a and other governorates in the central and northern parts of the country.

    • The second season harvest was estimated to be average to above-average for basic grains and cash crops, including wheat, sorghum, barley, and maize, as well as oranges, grapes, and coffee in the governorates of the Central Highlands  and Southern Uplands, due to the favorable rainfall during the season. The millet harvest in the coastal areas of Tihama was also average to above-average, whereas the limited wheat and sorghum harvests in the Eastern Plateau were lower than the previous year due to low rainfall totals in this region.

    • After the total number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) declined by 20 percent in 2013 as most people displaced from Abyan returned home, armed conflict during 2014 caused new displacement. The number of registered IDPs increased by 7 percent between January and September 2014, and there are approximately 80,000 unregistered and temporary IDPs that are newly displaced. Conflict is ongoing in Al Bayda and is likely to extend to other surrounding governorates, including Ma’rib.

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    To project food security outcomes, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario for the coming eight months. Learn more here.

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