Lebanon

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Lebanon
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Latest Analysis
Key Message Update January 2026 Insecurity, high prices, and weak incomes drive food access constraints Download the report
  • Persistent insecurity and political uncertainty continue to disrupt livelihoods in conflict-affected areas, particularly in southern Lebanon. Although violence did not immediately spike after the December 31 Hezbollah disarmament deadline – likely due to competing regional priorities – disarmament remains a primary escalation risk in the near term, with unresolved ceasefire disputes maintaining pressure for renewed tensions. Ongoing tensions and the risk of renewed hostilities are sustaining displacement and limiting labor opportunities for poor households. Roughly 64,000 people remain internally displaced from southern Lebanon, with returns expected to remain slow due to insecurity and limited livelihood opportunities.
  • The recent surge of people fleeing into Lebanon from western Syria face substantial food access challenges, underscoring the ongoing and dynamic nature of the regional displacement crisis. These new cross-border arrivals are relying entirely on humanitarian food assistance as they are unable to engage in income-generating activities due to fear of movement. Elevated levels of arrivals and departures are expected to continue in the near term, maintaining localized food insecurity pressures amid significant humanitarian funding shortfalls, particularly for Syrian refugee households as funding is only secured through April 2026.
  • Localized flooding poses short-term risks to livelihoods and market access in flood-prone areas. In January 2026, severe winter storms and heavy rainfall caused significant flooding in Lebanon, particularly impacting the agricultural sector in the northern Akkar region. The flooding – driven by overflowing river levels – destroyed crops, greenhouses, and agricultural assets, further worsening the economic situation of small-scale farmers. The flooding is compounding food access risks in Lebanon as extensive damage to private properties and road infrastructure is affecting both market supply and households’ physical access to markets. Supply constraints are triggering above average prices for households that are already experiencing weak purchasing power due to limited seasonal labor income. Episodic flooding is expected to continue through the winter, sustaining localized disruptions to livelihoods and food access.         
  • Elevated winter-related living costs are sharply constraining household purchasing power, especially among poor Lebanese households and refugee populations. Higher expenditures on heating fuel, electricity, water, and transport are reducing the amount of income available for food at a time when income-earning opportunities remain seasonally limited and assistance levels are insufficient to offset these additional costs. Food inflation is expected to remain broadly stable, consistent with recent months. Overall food costs are projected to increase at a slow, steady pace, while prices for fresh foods will continue to fluctuate in line with seasonal production patterns and input costs. While food inflation has moderated compared to late 2025, overall living costs are growing faster than wages, sustaining food access constraints.
  • Labor market conditions remain weak, limiting income-earning opportunities for poor households. Non-agricultural labor opportunities in construction, transport, and services remain below average due to weak investment, high operating costs, and insecurity. Seasonal employment related to winter tourism provides only limited and localized income gains. Agricultural labor demand also remains atypically low following delayed planting and reduced land preparation earlier in the December to March winter wet season.
  • Winter crop production is expected to be poor due to the delayed start of the season, constraining agricultural productivity and rural livelihoods. While precipitation in January provided some relief, a lack of precipitation in December increased water scarcity and delayed winter planting. The delay is expected to result in below-average winter cereal production, particularly for rainfed wheat. Near-average rainfall and above-average temperatures forecast through April are unlikely to offset the earlier deficits. Above-average temperatures during the April to September dry season are likely to further strain water resources and agricultural productivity.
  • Available information for the period between November 2025 and early 2026 suggests humanitarian food assistance delivery in Lebanon has broadly followed the previously anticipated trajectory, though funding constraints continue to create coverage gaps. In late 2025, the Food Security Sector partners continued supporting around 200,000 households through food or cash assistance. Assistance levels are likely to remain at risk of being scaled down when compared to prior years due to funding constraints. The Emergency Social Safety Net (ESSN) has continued providing monthly cash transfers to a large share of targeted Lebanese households, subject to financing and recertification. Syrian refugees have continued receiving regular food assistance, though caseloads and transfer values remain subject to adjustment. Amid ongoing conflict impacts, weak labor income, below-average agricultural performance, and high essential costs, humanitarian food assistance needs remain elevated and are expected to stay high through at least mid-2026.
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Markets & trade
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Alerts / Special Reports
Special Report Global June 23, 2025
Special Report Global May 1, 2025
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