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Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes at a minimum are expected to persist

  • Key Message Update
  • Middle East and Asia
  • May 2024
Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes at a minimum are expected to persist

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will likely persist in the north, northeast, and western highlands of Afghanistan from May through September. Following early season rainfall deficits, exceptionally heavy rainfall and flooding in May resulted in localized losses, although the national 2024 harvest is expected to be average. Similar food insecurity outcomes are ongoing among some returnees from Iran and Pakistan, predominantly relocating to Kandahar, Kunar, and Nangarhar provinces due to constrained labor opportunities in Afghanistan. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are likely to persist through at least September in eastern and southern areas of the country due to the harvest during the current production season.
    • Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to persist through at least September in western and northern areas controlled by the Sana’a-based authorities (SBA) of Yemen, where WFP-provided food assistance remains paused. In the rest of the country, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes are expected throughout the projection period. Ongoing and escalated economic conflict between the Internationally Recognized Government (IRG) and SBA continues to restrict economic activities, constraining household food sources and income opportunities. Economic challenges are most severe in IRG areas, where the local currency has lost 38 percent of its value in the last year, which in turn is resulting in food and fuel prices over 100 percent higher than the four-year average. Furthermore, extreme heat and prolonged power outages in IRG areas are also forcing poor households to divert resources to energy and healthcare instead of food purchases. 
    • In Lebanon, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely to continue throughout the projection period in Mount Lebanon and southern areas due to the ongoing conflict, which is disrupting household access to food and income. Additionally, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected among poor households in northern Akkar Governorate and poor and refugee households in the Beqaa region, where refugees exceed the number of hosts and cuts in humanitarian assistance have been reported. While ongoing harvests in northern areas have improved household food access, constrained labor opportunities are limiting access to income. This situation is likely to persist throughout the projection period, maintaining Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes for poor households. Ongoing conflict in southern Lebanon’s frontline areas displaced over 94,000 people predominantly from Bint Jbeil district in El Nabatieh Governorate from October 2023 through May 2024. Labor opportunities across the country have been constrained by the protracted economic and financial crisis, coupled with the decline in the tourism industry due to the ongoing conflict between the Israel Defense Forces and Hezbollah. A 30 percent decline in production in key southern production areas and constrained labor opportunities are limiting access to food and income for displaced households amid higher-than-average food prices in areas of displacement and in safer areas of El Nabatieh and Mt. Lebanon.
    • While Gaza is not a regularly monitored FEWS NET country and therefore not typically included in regional summaries, FEWS NET’s targeted analyses on Gaza can be accessed here. To prevent widespread loss of life, an immediate cessation of hostilities is required, alongside a large-scale, multisectoral response with unrestricted access to populations in need.

    Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Middle East and Asia Key Message Update May 2024: Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes at a minimum are expected to persist, 2024.

    This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.

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