Conflict, economic, and weather shocks drive elevated needs in the region

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In Yemen, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes are expected nationwide amid low purchasing capacity for millions of households. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to continue throughout the projection period in SBA areas, where more than 50 percent of the population was receiving assistance prior to the pause. In July, following the announcement of limited resumption of assistance, improvement in outcomes is likely among some beneficiary populations. While the fruit harvest in the northern highlands increased household income in July, constrained labor opportunities, reduced remittances, forex shortages, and limited access to humanitarian food assistance restrict income-earning capacities. While the economic conflict between IRG- and SBA-controlled areas has eased, internal trading processes to and from SBA and IRG areas are likely to remain challenging in the coming months.
Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely in Afghanistan's northeastern and central highlands due to the impact of flooding and ongoing macroeconomic challenges that are affecting household access to income and constraining purchasing capacity. In urban areas, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist, associated with limited labor opportunities and insufficient income to purchase food. In the rest of the country, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are ongoing as the winter wheat harvest is complete, improving household and market food supply and seasonally lowering food prices. In Badakhshan, Bamyan, Daikundi, Kunar, Lagman, and Nangahar provinces, impacts of flooding have disrupted access to income and food following the loss of crops, livestock, and household livelihood assets. The Pakistan government increased import tariffs on Afghanistan’s horticultural crops in July by more than 300 percent. This has led to an oversupply of fruits and vegetables normally destined for the Pakistani market, resulting in declines declines in household income for farmers in Farah, Helmand, Kandahar, Kunduz, Lagman, and Nangarhar provinces, in addition to spoilage of the produce held at ports of exit.
The ongoing conflict in southern Lebanon between Hezbollah and the Israeli Defense Force intensified in July, displacing over 100,000 people from Bint Jbeil, Marjayyon, and Tyre in Nabatieh and Southern governorates since early October. Nearly 60 percent of the displaced population remain in the southern areas and have lost typical productive capacities. Damage to farmland, water infrastructure, roads, markets, and telecommunications have disrupted access to income and food sources for about 60,000 people remaining in the conflict-affected areas and displaced households. Cuts to humanitarian food assistance in December and January have impacted both refugees and hosts in the north and northeast, where the refugee populations exceed hosts. Hosts and refugees are competing for limited labor opportunities amid above-average food prices, driving expanding food consumption gaps and a proportion of households to Crisis (IPC Phase 3). The ongoing economic crisis across the country is compounded by the dollarization of the cash economy, which is exposing poor households, IDPs, and refugees to severe household purchasing constraints for food and non-food commodities that are traded in dollars, which has exacerbated existing above-average commodity prices.
While Gaza is not a regularly monitored FEWS NET country and therefore not typically included in regional summaries, FEWS NET’s targeted analyses on Gaza can be accessed here. To prevent widespread loss of life, an immediate cessation of hostilities is required, alongside a large-scale, multisectoral response with unrestricted access to populations in need.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Middle East and Asia Key Message Update July 2024: Conflict, economic, and weather shocks drive elevated needs in the region, 2024.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.