Significant food supply shortages threaten worsening hunger and malnutrition

• Despite the continued entry of humanitarian and commercial food supplies into Gaza in September alongside a slight lull in conflict intensity that partially alleviated constraints on food access, Emergency! (IPC Phase 4!) outcomes persist. Furthermore, developments in early October are raising alarm that circumstances identified as being part of the scenario that would lead to Famine (IPC Phase 5) may be materializing. As of October 11, both humanitarian and commercial food supply has reportedly been cut off in the north amid the new Israeli Defense Force (IDF) offensive and mass evacuation orders in October. The south is also facing significant reductions in commercial food supply. To avert Famine (IPC Phase 5), a substantial scale-up in the supply and distribution of humanitarian food and nutrition assistance, as well as the unrestricted facilitation of commercial food delivery, must occur across Gaza. 
• The closure of both northern border crossings (Erez and Erez West) in early October and new Israeli restrictions on the entrance of commercial food supply in the south have resulted in a drastic decline in the delivery of humanitarian and commercial food supply to Gaza in the first 10 days of October. In August, FEWS NET assessed that Famine (IPC Phase 5) would likely occur in the event of a prolonged reduction in humanitarian food assistance in the north (where commercial food supply has been severely limited) and sustained low humanitarian food assistance in the south. FEWS NET assessed that a concurrent reduction in commercial food supply would lead to more rapid deterioration in the south. Levels of acute malnutrition and starvation will rise rapidly if deliveries do not resume and/or populations remaining in the north are cut off from food for multiple weeks. 
• The events identified in FEWS NET’s Risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) scenario started to occur in early October. While humanitarian and commercial food stocks from prior months as well as nutrition services are likely preventing a sharp deterioration in outcomes in early October, this remains of high concern. Malnutrition and mortality from hunger are lagging indicators, and deterioration to Famine (IPC Phase 5) thresholds takes time to manifest. If humanitarian and commercial supplies remain heavily restricted or suspended throughout October, FEWS NET would likely change its current Risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) statement to a projection of Famine (IPC Phase 5). However, the time it would take for Famine to manifest would be determined by the exact quantities of food and nutrition support within Gaza in the coming weeks and months and, consequently, the evolution of malnutrition and mortality.

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