Food assistance declines further as the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza persists

• In southern Gaza, FEWS NET assesses Emergency! (IPC Phase 4!) outcomes are likely currently ongoing amid rapid shifts in raid and clearing operations, evacuation orders, and population displacement. Humanitarian food assistance deliveries declined further in July and are among the lowest levels observed since October 2023; however, distribution reports suggest humanitarian agencies managed to deliver food parcels biweekly to 25-45 percent of the 1.8 million people sheltering in Deir Al-Balah and Khan Younis in June and in the first half of July, in addition to providing hot meals to 30-40 percent of the population daily. Households’ financial access to available market supply remains highly constrained by a scarcity of income-generating activities. Humanitarian food and nutrition assistance is likely the key factor mitigating further deterioration in levels of food consumption, acute malnutrition, and mortality. Data collected in July suggest global acute malnutrition levels remain atypically high and concerning but have not approached the Famine (IPC Phase 5) threshold. 
• In northern Gaza, the entry of humanitarian food assistance also declined in July, but distribution remained significant compared to that observed prior to May, as humanitarian agencies were able to deliver food parcels to around 45 percent of the population in the first half of July. The provision of nutrition services saw mixed trends, with a sharp decline in heavily conflict-affected areas of Gaza City and a notable increase in North Gaza. FEWS NET continues to assess that it is possible Emergency! (IPC Phase 4!) outcomes are ongoing amid large-scale provision of food and nutrition assistance; however, an increase in proxy acute malnutrition prevalence in July and volatility in capacity to treat children with Severe Acute Malnutrition in Gaza City underscores FEWS NET’s prior concern that data are insufficiently representative to conclude with high confidence that Famine (IPC Phase 5) is not ongoing. While data collected in May suggested just 1 percent of screened children were acutely malnourished, data collected in July yielded prevalences ranging from 7 to 13 percent in Gaza City¹.
• As detailed in FEWS NET’s June 2024 targeted analysis report, the trajectory of acute food insecurity through September continues to hinge on the population’s access to food and nutrition assistance, and the volatility of ground conditions and persistent limitations on representative data collection continue to drive a high degree of uncertainty about the most likely scenario in both northern and southern Gaza. Conflict and insecurity dynamics are highly fluid, humanitarian food assistance delivery and distribution continue to face extreme operational and logistical constraints, commercial activity and market functionality remain severely disrupted, and the risk of communicable disease spread is high. In a scenario in which large-scale assistance is distributed to the population, Emergency! (IPC Phase 4!) outcomes are expected. In a scenario in which large-scale assistance does not reach a substantial proportion of the population for multiple weeks or more, Famine (IPC Phase 5) is anticipated. Regular, safe, and unhindered humanitarian access to deliver lifesaving interventions must be guaranteed to confidently conclude that Famine (IPC Phase 5) will be averted.

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