Gaza food supply assessment, as of September 30, 2024

• Due to consistent delays or gaps in the reporting of data on humanitarian and commercial food supply, it remains extremely challenging to accurately estimate the total food supply entering Gaza at the conclusion of a given month. This is highlighted by the significant revision in FEWS NET’s previously reported estimate of 7,355-8,129 MT of humanitarian assistance entering in August to an estimate of 23,279-25-751, following updated data published by UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA). Based on data available through early October, an estimated 15,728-17,383 MT of humanitarian food entered Gaza in September. 
• Historical data from UNRWA for humanitarian food assistance was updated for previous months and is reflected in Annex B. With these updates, total humanitarian food assistance through Kerem Shalom increased but is still trending downward since May. The updated data for humanitarian food assistance through Erez had the largest increases in July and August, which shifts the trend analysis to show an increase through August and then, as of data in early October, a drop again in September. It is important to note that even updated MT estimates show lower levels of humanitarian assistance entry relative to April and May 2024. 
• While the amount of humanitarian assistance entering Gaza in September may be revised with updated data, it is likely the amount still trended downward relative to August. This is likely due in part to Israel introducing a customs rule requiring individuals from aid organizations to provide passport details and accept liability for any false shipment information. Due to concerns that this exposes staff to legal risks, humanitarian agencies stopped shipments, and no UN-chartered convoys had entered from Jordan to Gaza (supplying northern Gaza) since mid-September. The rule was rolled back in mid-October.
• No commercial truck entry data was reported for Erez for the second consecutive month.
• Israel is reportedly “restricting commercial food shipments” to Gaza based on reports that “Hamas managed to levy taxes on some commercial shipments and seize some of the food” (Reuters). Israel’s Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) reported an approximately 10,000 MT reduction in commercial food approved to enter through Kerem Shalom compared to August; however, without commercial data for Erez, a trend is difficult to verify.
• On September 8, UNRWA added commercial data from previous months for Kerem Shalom to its database. This data represents commercial entries as reported to UNRWA, not direct truck observations at the border, and is therefore likely an incomplete count of commercial truck entries. COGAT commercial truck numbers continue to represent trucks approved for entry, not trucks which have successfully entered and discharged their cargo. Given the challenges with these two datasets, it remains difficult to obtain an accurate estimate of commercial food entering Gaza and Gazan markets.
• Approvals and access for humanitarian missions remain a significant challenge. In June and July, 64.3 percent and 58.4 percent of missions were facilitated (completed), respectively; less than 50 percent were facilitated in August and September.
• Market functionality remains strained (particularly in northern Gaza, according to available information); there is wide variation between markets and individual market actors in terms of food availability from suppliers and changes in the security situation. Across households and market actors, very few report improved market or security conditions, with continued reports of households spending many hours to buy food and market actors selling out all food stocks in one day. 

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