Afghanistan
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- Average precipitation conditions are expected across most of the country through the end of October 2024. Figure 1 indicates that precipitation anomalies (mm) will most likely be within the range (+/- 10 mm) over most parts of the country. Above normal precipitation (10 to 50 mm) may also be expected over some isolated parts in the west, north, and northeast during this period.
- A weak La Niña (60 to 70 percent) is favored during September-November 2024 and the same is expected to continue through January-March 2025. There is an increased chance of below-average precipitation during this period in most parts of the country (Figure 2).
- The forecast of below-average precipitation during the 2024-25 winter wet season will most likely lead to below-average snowpack development and snow water volumes (SWV) in many basins in the country. Forecasts of above-average daily temperatures (Figure 3) through the 2024/25 winter season are expected to result in early and reduced snowmelt runoff during spring (March-May 2025). Likewise, there is an increased chance of extreme temperatures (in the upper quintiles) across the country.
- The forecast below-average precipitation through February 2025 implies that the general wheat planting activity might be less vigorous than normal in the irrigated winter wheat areas in the north. The overall performance of 2024-25 wheat harvest may be adversely affected if the deficit in winter wheat planted area is not supplemented by spring wheat planting and if adverse precipitation conditions extend further into spring 2025.
- Rangeland vegetative conditions may be sparse and below normal through February 2025. The forecast of above-average temperature and below-average precipitation conditions may result in increasing negative anomalies in the rangeland vegetation and rainfed agriculture, most notably in the lowlands.
- As per field informants, farmers have started preparing land for wheat planting in the northern irrigated areas that received good precipitation through mid-October 2024. As per field informants, average or slightly below-average winter wheat planting can still be accomplished if sufficient precipitation is evenly distributed in the second half of October and November 2024.
- The deteriorating groundwater levels are a major cause for concern for the farmers all over the country according to field informants. Over-reliance on groundwater for the purpose of year-round irrigation, animal and human drinking water, and other uses has created an imbalance between the excessive extraction and reduced recharge of groundwater, and this has increased over the past 3-4 years. It is also observed that the recent above-average precipitation during spring and summer 2024 has not contributed enough to recharge groundwater resources sufficiently.
Figure 1
Light green to violet colors indicates cumulative precipitation above normal while light brown to red colors indicates cumulative precipitation below normal.
Source: UCSB CHC
Figure 2
Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service
Figure 3
Light yellow to red indicates the likelihood of warmer temperatures in the upper tercile, and cyan to dark blue indicates the likelihood of cooler temperatures in the lower tercile
Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service
FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.