Afghanistan
Download Report
Download Report
- The ENSO diagnostic discussion predicts weak La Niña conditions during December 2025 - February 2026. Then, there is a 61% chance of a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during January-March 2026, and a 60% to 75% likelihood of those conditions persisting through May-July 2026.
- CHIRPS-GEFS based short-term cumulative precipitation forecast from October 1, 2025 to December 5, 2025 indicates cumulative precipitation deficits on the order of 25-50 mm are most likely in the northern, central, northeastern, eastern, and southeastern parts of the country. Certain isolated areas within the northeast and central regions may experience cumulative precipitation deficits ranging from 50 to 100 mm by December 5, 2025. In the rest of the country, cumulative precipitation deficits on the order of 10 to 25 mm are expected by December 5, 2025.
- The Copernicus Climate Change Services (C3S) precipitation forecast for December 2025 - February 2026 calls for average conditions.
- The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) temperature forecast indicates persistent above average temperatures through May 2026.
- The forecast for above average temperatures through May 2026 may lead to less-than-average snow water volume (SWV) accumulations as a result of precipitation occurring as rain instead of snow during winter in many basins.
- As per field informants, steady progress of irrigated winter wheat planting, supported mainly by ground and surface water, has been reported. On the other hand, rainfed winter wheat planting has been significantly reduced due to below average cumulative precipitation conditions from the beginning of the 2025/26 wet season.
- Increased spring wheat sowing is highly likely by the end of March 2026 as average precipitation conditions are expected from February 2026 onwards. This is expected to compensate for the shortfalls in winter wheat planted areas in some parts of the country.
- As of the reporting date, soil moisture conditions are worse than last season in most pastoral zones. Current below average soil moisture conditions have put rangelands under stress. Forecasts for below average precipitation and above average temperature conditions till February 2026 suggest further deterioration of rangeland vegetation, especially in the lowlands during spring and summer months.
Figure 1
Light green to violet colors indicate cumulative October precipitation above normal (mm) while light brown to red colors indicate cumulative precipitation below normal (mm)
Source: UCSB CHC
Figure 2
Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service
Figure 3
Yellow to red indicates the likelihood of warmer than average temperatures in the upper tercile, while cyan to blue indicates the likelihood of cooler than average temperatures in the lower tercile.
Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service
Figure 4
Light yellow to brown indicates below-average normal NDVI in the lower tercile, while light green to dark green indicate above-average NDVI in the upper tercile.
Source: USGS EROS
Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Afghanistan Seasonal Monitor November 26, 2025: For the sixth year in a row, the 2025/26 wet season began with below-average precipitation, above-average temperature, and deficit soil moisture conditions throughout the country, 2025.
FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.