Historically wet Spring resulted in flooding in many provinces

• Heavy precipitation in April through mid-May has reduced seasonal precipitation deficits across much of the country. Currently, seasonal precipitation totals are 110-125 percent of the 40-year average across southern and southeastern areas, while a mix of average to below-average precipitation conditions (75-110 percent of the 40-year average) are distributed elsewhere (Figure 1).
• As of May 20, 2024, snowpack remains mainly in the northeast, and most of that is below average (Figures 2 and 3a). The snowmelt season is complete in the western and southwestern regions, as exemplified by Hari Rod and Helmand basins (Figures 3b and 3c). Above-normal snowpack conditions exist in some parts of Bamiyan (central highlands), Baghlan (north), Parwan and Panjsher (central), and Nuristan (east) (Figure 2). Snow water level of the Kabul basin is only slightly below normal (Figure 3d)
• Above-average precipitation is forecast for June to August 2024 across southeast Afghanistan (Figure 4), which will favor continued replenishment of surface and groundwater resources in the country after three consecutive years of hydrological drought. However, ECMWF precipitation forecasts for May 27 to June 10, 2024, favor mostly average to below-average precipitation across the country from June 19 through June 27, 2024 (Figure 5). Drier weather in the coming weeks may facilitate favorable soil moisture conditions for planting rice, maize, and vegetables, while above-average precipitation could further delay second-season crop activities.
• Normally, wheat harvest commences from the second week of April in the southeastern and southern parts of the country. As per key informants, the wheat harvest has been delayed by 2-3 weeks due to the widespread precipitation since April and the consequent saturated soils in different parts of the country. There are reports that the wheat harvest has begun in southern, eastern, and southeastern parts of the country. 
• Upper quintile air temperatures during late Spring and early summer are forecast to be three times more likely than historically in the period 1993-2016 (Figure 6). Above-average temperatures, wet soils, and humidity may make some wheat highly susceptible to rust in areas of the country where late-sown wheat is in the flowering and maturity stages.  
• ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to rapidly transition from May-July 2024 to La Niña conditions in August-October 2024 (about 75 percent likelihood). La Niña conditions are expected to persist from November 2024 through February 2025 (about 85 percent likelihood).

Current conditions

As per key informants, Afghanistan received average to above-average precipitation from April till mid-May, except in parts of Badakhshan in the northeast, Farah in the west, and Ghor and Bamiyan in the central parts of the country. Additionally, key informants report that the wheat harvest is beginning in the southeastern and eastern regions.

Precipitation

As of May 31, southern and southeastern parts of the country are likely to receive above-average cumulative precipitation (110-150 percent of the 40-year average), while a mix of average to below-average cumulative precipitation (75 to 110 percent of the 40-year average) conditions are expected elsewhere (Figure 1). 

Snow depth and snow water volume

Snowpack development has been below-average over higher elevations throughout the 2023/24 season, even though the average to above-average precipitation in April through mid-May improved snowpack in some parts of eastern and central Afghanistan (Figure 2). 

Snow water volumes remain below average in Khanabad, Kokcha_Ab-i-Rustaq, and Panj basins in the northeast (Figure 3a) as of the reporting date. Snow water volumes in Balkhab, Sari Pul, Khulm, Shirin Tagab, Bala Murghab_Kushk, Hari Rod (Figure 3b), Farah_Adraskan, Khash_Khuspas, Helmand (Figure 3c), Arghandab, Ghazni, and Shamal basins are at near zero levels as they have reached the end of their respective seasonal cycles. Snow water volumes are above average in the Kunduz basin and near-average levels in the Kabul basin (Figure 3d) due to above-average precipitation through mid-May. 

According to key informants, the average to above-average snow water volumes in some basins in the country may replenish reservoirs enough to support the planting of second crops; however, snow water volumes may not be sufficient to meet the irrigation water needs through the end of August-September. Most downstream reaches served by the reservoirs and canals will likely face irrigation water shortages later during summer in the country. 

There is a high likelihood of above-average precipitation across the country from June through August 2024 (Figure 4). 

ECMWF weekly precipitation forecasts from May 20, 2024, through June 10, 2024, favor mostly below-average precipitation (Figure 5 a-c). During the following week (June 10-17, 2024), average precipitation is likely, except for below-average precipitation in some western areas (Figure 5d). According to key informants, the anticipated dry weather conditions may provide favorable soil conditions for planting summer crops in the coming months, avoiding further delays.

Temperature

There is a high probability of above-average air temperatures throughout the country from June to August 2024 (Figure 6). Above-average temperatures, in the hottest 20 percent of the historical record, are predicted to be three times more likely than normal (compared to 1993-2016) during June-October. The above-average temperatures will likely induce high evapotranspiration rates and, together with the anticipated below-average precipitation during the dry months, could negatively impact rangeland vegetation and second-season crops.