Afghanistan
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- As of December 25, 2024, below-average cumulative precipitation (October 1 – December 25, 2024) conditions were observed in most parts of the country except for near-average precipitation conditions in isolated locations in Badakhshan in the northeast, in Baghlan, Faryab, and Sar-i-Pul in the north and northwest, and in Kandahar in the south (Figure 1).
- Below-average snow water equivalent conditions were observed in all basins except for slightly above average conditions over isolated higher elevations in northern parts of Panj basin as of December 29, 2024 (Figure 2). Snow water volumes (SWV) are either below-average or close to record minimum levels across the country as of the reporting date (Figures 3 a-d).
- Cumulative precipitation is expected to be mostly below-average in the western and southwestern parts of the country while the near-average precipitation may be likely elsewhere through the end of 2024/25 wet season (Figures 4). Precipitation during the March to May rainy season may be below-average across the country with some localized areas receiving near-average precipitation during this period. In general, below-average snowpack development, snow depths, and snow water volumes (SWV) may be seen throughout the 2024/25 season. This forecast is related to conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean that resemble La Niña and lead to similar effects, even if a La Niña is not officially declared.
- CHIRPS-GEFS based short-term precipitation forecasts indicate that the average to above-average cumulative precipitation conditions (October 1, 2024 - January 10, 2025) are most likely in the northwestern, central highlands, northern, northeastern, eastern, and southeastern parts of the country, while the status of cumulative precipitation deficits might remain the same in the southern and southwestern areas as of January 10, 2025 (Figure 5a). ECMWF weekly forecasts indicate higher likelihood of above-average precipitation across most areas through January 6, 2025 (Figure 5b, left inset). However, during the following week, ECMWF forecasts a higher likelihood of below-average precipitation along with no tilt of above- or below-average precipitation in isolated southeastern areas bordering Pakistan (Figure 5b, right inset).
- As per the field reports, 2024/25 wheat planting progressed well despite below-average cumulative precipitation through the end of December 2024. Field reports indicate that this may be due to better spatial distribution of precipitation between October 1, 2024, and December 15, 2024. Farmers may continue to rely heavily on groundwater resources for spring wheat planting and crop water use contingent to the lack of sufficient surface water during spring and summer. The end-of-season 2024/25 wheat production may be below-average if the shortfall in winter wheat areas planted is not complemented by normal to above-normal spring wheat planting.
- Above-average daily mean temperatures are forecast country-wide from December 2024 – February 2025 (Figure 6) with some below-average temperatures possible till the end of 2024/25 spring season. Consequently, snowpack development in the mid- and high-elevation areas might be adversely affected leading to reduced snowmelt and below-normal surface water availability in most basins in the country.
- Above-average temperatures during April-May 2025 may cause moisture stress in rainfed crops and rangelands and reduce water availability for crop water use in these areas. It is important to note that despite the forecasts of above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation, there is a wide range of possible outcomes depending on the regional storms during 2024/25 spring and summer months in the country.
Current conditions
As per field reports, winter wheat planting activities have been supported by better precipitation, soil moisture, and water availability conditions during the current season than during last year as of the reporting date. Field reports also indicate increased farmer concern regarding health of germinated wheat and its normal development in view of the forecast of below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures until the end of the winter wet season.
Precipitation
Cumulative precipitation from October 1 to December 25, 2024, has been below-average except for near-average precipitation conditions in isolated parts of Badakhshan in the northeast, Baghlan, Faryab, and Sar-i-Pul in the northwest and in Kandahar in the south. Most of the northwestern, northern, central, northeastern, eastern, and southern areas received 60 to 90 percent of average (Figure 1). Considering the expectation of above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation, Afghanistan is expected to experience a milder-than-normal winter in the coming months.
Figure 1
Light green to blue colors indicate cumulative precipitation percent above normal while light brown to red colors indicate percent of average below normal.
Source: UCSB CHC
Snow water volume
Below-average snow water equivalent conditions were seen across most watersheds in the country except for isolated above-average locations at higher elevations in Panj basin (Figure 2). Currently, it is the fourth year in-a-row that below-average snow water equivalent conditions are present during the early portion of the water year. Snow water volumes (SWV) are currently either below-average or closer-to-record minimum levels in various basins. As of December 29, SWV levels were below-average in Hari Rod basin in the west, Helmand basin in the south, and Panj basin in the northeast, and closer-to-record minimum level in Kabul basin in the east (Figures 3 a-d).
Figure 2
Source: USGS/NASA
Figure 3
Source: USGS/NASA
Source: USGS/NASA
Source: USGS/NASA
Source: USGS/NASA
Precipitation
Precipitation forecast for January – March 2025, generated in December 2024, indicates increased probability of below average precipitation in the western and southwestern parts of the country while there is no tilt towards above- or below-average precipitation in the rest of the country (Figure 4). Consequently, expectations for a milder-than-normal winter are likely and this could lead to a lower likelihood of landslides and road blockages through the 2024/25 winter season. CHIRPS-GEFS based short-term cumulative precipitation (October 1, 2024 – January 10, 2025) forecast indicates a significant improvement in precipitation conditions in the northern, northwestern, central highlands, northeastern, and southeastern parts of the country. Average to above-average cumulative precipitation conditions are likely in the above areas by January 10, 2025, however, there might not be any significant improvement in the deficit conditions in the southern and southwestern parts of the country as of January 10, 2025 (Figure 5a). ECMWF weekly precipitation forecast through January 6, 2025, indicates an elevated probability of above-average precipitation over most of the country except in the southwest (Figure 5b, left inset). However, there is an increased likelihood of below-average precipitation in most parts of the country in the following period ending January 13, 2025 (Figure 5b, right inset). A wide range of possible outcomes are possible during the 2024/25 winter wet season in view of the highly variable bi-weekly actual precipitation forecasts and long-term cumulative precipitation forecasts.
Figure 4
Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service
Figure 5
Light green to blue colors indicate cumulative precipitation percent above normal while light brown to red colors indicate percent of average below normal.
Source: UCSB CHC
Light to dark green colors indicate cumulative precipitation anomalies in percent above-mean while light brown to dark brown colors indicate anomalies in percent below-mean.
Source: ECMWF Forecast System
Temperature
Temperature forecasts for January – March 2025, generated in December 2024, indicate high probability of above-average temperatures (Figure 6). As per field reports, the normal winter wheat planting ends by mid-December but the forecast of above-average day time temperatures may extend the planting window through the end of December. On the other hand, persistent above-average temperatures could lead to early snowpack depletion, resulting in reduced water availability for irrigated crop water use, and moisture stress in rainfed crops and rangelands during spring and summer months. Despite progressively lower recharge rates over the past few years, farmers are likely to rely more on groundwater to supplement crop water use, which in turn may lead to further deterioration of water quantity and quality in different regions of the country.
Figure 6
Light yellow to red indicates the likelihood of warmer temperatures in the upper tercile, and cyan to dark blue indicates the likelihood of cooler temperatures in the lower tercile.
Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service
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