Above average precipitation forecast during latter part of the winter wet season may aid additional spring wheat planting

• Below-average precipitation from October 1, 2023, to January 5, 2024, will be seen throughout the country (Figure 1). Currently, some of the northeastern, eastern, and southern parts of the country are under severe (only 45 – 60 percent of average received) precipitation deficits while mild to moderate (60-90 percent of average received) precipitation deficits are prevailing in the rest of the country.
• Record minimum snow water volumes were observed in the northern, northeastern, and eastern basins while below-average snow water volumes were seen in northwestern basins as of December 25, 2023. However, near-average snow water volume has also been observed in western and southern basins as of the reporting date (Figures 2 and 3).
• El Niño is expected to continue until spring 2024, transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions by June-August 2024. Consequently, precipitation from October 2023 through May 2024 is expected to be above-average in central and northeastern Afghanistan while rest of the country is likely to receive near-average precipitation during this period (Figure 4). La Niña is the most likely state of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation by Aug-Oct 2024.
• ECMWF weekly forecasts indicate below-average precipitation throughout the country up to January 8, 2024 (Figure 5). The time window for the winter wheat planting is almost over, with lower-than-expected areas under wheat to date. Consequently, it is expected that the farmers may opt for planting spring wheat from late February through end of March taking advantage of the above-average precipitation that is forecasted during this period.
• Above-average daily mean temperatures are most likely through May 2024 (Figure 6). Above-average temperatures in the coming months may lead to early blooming of stone fruits, mainly almonds, in the northern, northeastern, and central parts of the country. Such earlier-than-expected blooms in almonds are vulnerable to possible frost and freezing temperatures during February and March, culminating in reduced yields at the end of the season. There is an increased likelihood of earlier-than-normal flash floods because of the forecasted above-average precipitation and temperatures during the remainder of the winter wet season (late February and early March) in eastern, northeastern, and central basins of the country. Increased drying of the landscape will raise the likelihood of rainfed crops and rangelands experiencing moisture stress during this period.

Current conditions

As per key informants, below-average precipitation, low soil moisture, and deficit water availability conditions are prevailing in both areas cultivating winter wheat and in rangelands across Afghanistan as of reporting date. The winter wheat planting window of opportunity will close reportedly within the next two weeks, and the prevailing water deficit conditions across the country have led to lower-than-expected wheat sown areas. Farmers have alternative plans of taking advantage of the forecasted above-average precipitation during February-March 2024 to plant spring wheat.

Precipitation

Below-average cumulative precipitation is forecast up to January 8, 2024. Many areas in the northeast, east and selected portions of southern provinces have received only 45 to 60 percent of the average while the rest of the country has received 60 to 90 percent of average precipitation as of the reporting date (Figure 1).

Snow water volume

Snow water volumes are at record minimum levels in the basins of Panj, Kokcha_Ab-i-Rustaq, Khanabad, Ghazni, Kunduz, Khulm, Balkhab, Ghazni, and Shamal. Snow water volumes are below average in Sari Pul, Shirin Tagab, and Bala Murghab Kushk basins. Snow water volumes are near-average in Hari Rod, Farah Adraskan, Khash-Kushpas, Helmand, and Arghandab basins as of the reporting date (Figures 2 and 3). 

Precipitation

Precipitation for the latter part of the 2023/24 winter wet season (January – March 2024) is most likely to be above–average in central and northeastern parts of the country and near-average in the rest of the country (Figure 4). For the period December 25, 2023, to January 8, 2024, there is an elevated probability of below-average precipitation throughout the country except in the extreme southwest (Figure 5). However, as above-average precipitation is forecast until April-May 2024, it is expected that spring wheat planting will be widely managed to offset the less-than-normal winter wheat planting in the country.

Temperature

Temperature forecasts for January – March 2024, as of December 2023, indicate high probability of above-average temperatures across the country (Figure 6). There is an increased probability of earlier-than-usual flooding in the flood prone areas of the northeastern, eastern, northeastern, central, and western parts of the country. Above-average temperatures are most likely to result in early snowpack depletion, resulting in reduced water availability for irrigated crop water use, and moisture stress threat to rainfed crops and rangelands remains high during spring and summer months.