Compounding shocks increase concern for food security in the lean season

Download Report

As the lean season begins in late 2025, food security conditions are of increasing concern. Households are facing the cumulative effects of multiple shocks: four consecutive years of drought, weak economic conditions despite some signs of recovery, and the continued return of households from Iran and Pakistan adds further pressure. The continued influx of returnees from Iran and Pakistan further strains labor markets, further limiting income for food purchases. These shocks are compounded by the severe earthquake that hit eastern Afghanistan in late August, which destroyed homes, disrupted livelihoods, and further strained household resources. This will likely result in further populations experiencing food consumption deficits.
On August 31, a 6.2-magnitude earthquake struck eastern provinces, primarily affecting Kunar and Nangarhar provinces. The districts of Nurgal, Chawkay, Khas Kunar, Chapa Dara, Dara-Pech, and Watapur in Kunar province were among the most severely affected, while the Dara-e-Nur district was the most affected in Nangarhar province. According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), as of late September, widespread destruction of homes, public infrastructure, and essential services, particularly in rural and mountainous areas, where buildings are highly vulnerable to seismic shocks. OCHA estimates that around 2,000 people were killed, over 3,600 were injured, and more than 8,000 homes were destroyed. Local communities and government authorities have led humanitarian relief efforts, and emergency medical and food assistance operations are ongoing. Thousands of people have been displaced and face significant challenges related to water, sanitation, and hygiene, which remain the primary focus of humanitarian assistance. Food security in earthquake-affected areas is likely to be of concern due to disruptions in livelihoods, and the winter season is rapidly approaching.
Below-average precipitation is most likely for the start of the October 2025 to May 2026 rainy season. Drought conditions at the start of the season are expected to be moderate and somewhat ease with the start of the precipitation season. Streamflow is expected to be below average through at least the start of the next precipitation season in October 2025. This is likely to limit water availability for second-season crops (mainly rice, cotton, and maize), most of which are expected to be harvested at the end of October in eastern and southern regions. The likely below-average start of the season will most likely negatively impact planting of winter wheat for the 2025/26 season, driving below-average levels of planting. Although the onset of precipitation in October will play a significant role in levels of planting, as early storms can trigger preparation and planting activities.
The second-season harvest is currently ongoing, with regional variations. Second-season crops, mainly maize and rice, are generally under stress across the country due to limited water availability for irrigation. Crops in northern and northeastern provinces are mature and the harvest is expected to begin soon, whereas crop irrigation in the eastern and southern provinces will continue for 2-3 more weeks. Ongoing drought conditions have adversely impacted second-season crops, particularly maize and rice, in eastern provinces. Maize production in the eastern provinces has been severely affected by water shortages, particularly in downstream provinces such as Nangarhar, Laghman, and Balkh.
As of mid-September, according to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, around 2.7 million Afghan migrants returned from Iran and Pakistan since the start of 2025, concentrated primarily in the villages of Islam Qala (Herat), Milak (Nimroz), Torkham (Nangarhar), and Spin Boldak (Kandahar). In August, the number of returnees sharply rose due to the Pakistan government’s decision to include Proof of Registration cardholders in its forced deportation plan, subjecting the cardholders to deportation for the first time. Despite the July announcement from the Pakistan government that Afghan refugees would be repatriated with a deadline set for September 1, deportations have continued at similar rates past the deadline as before. Returns of Afghan migrants from Iran have also increased slightly, amid growing reports of discrimination and harassment of Afghans in Iran. The continued influx of returnees will constrain labor markets, especially as agricultural labor decreases seasonally with the start of the winter season.
Exports rose sharply by 51 percent month-on-month in August and 54 percent year-on-year, reaching 176.6 million USD. This rebound was driven by several factors, including a preferential trade agreement reached with Pakistan, which temporarily reduced tariffs on agricultural goods. There was also a higher demand for Afghan products in Pakistan following recent monsoon-induced flooding in Pakistan, as well as the reopening of trade routes. While it remains unclear whether the recent surge in exports and a stable AFN have improved household purchasing power, the newly signed trade agreement with Pakistan is expected to positively impact households in the coming months through increased exports of vegetable products and broader market access.
According to the WFP, staple food prices in August remained generally stable compared to both July and the same time last year, supported by the recent harvest, steady supply, and a stable AFN exchange rate. Prices of locally produced rice, specifically in Kunduz, Baghlan, Takhar, Nangarhar, Laghman, and parts of Herat provinces, declined significantly (16 percent year-on-year), mainly due to the ongoing maize and rice harvests. The national average price of the Food Security and Agricultural Cluster food basket remained stable in August 2025.
Livestock terms of trade remained relatively stable, supported by steady wheat prices and livestock prices across the country. ‌Livestock selling is expected to begin with the winter season, in approximately one month. However, concerns remain around poor livestock body conditions, resulting in atypically high sales. Concentrated animal feed prices have increased by 9 percent compared to last year due to high demand, driven by below-average availability of natural fodder related to the ongoing drought. Since household purchasing power for livestock owners typically decreases during the winter months, higher prices of concentrated animal feed will limit livestock consumption. Instead, households will likely rely on low-quality locally available straw, which is expected to drive some declines in livestock body conditions and livestock prices through January.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Afghanistan Key Message Update September 2025: Compounding shocks increase concern for food security in the lean season, 2025.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.