Average orchard production is expected in central and western provinces in September/October

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Widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist in the central highlands and western and northeastern provinces of the country due to slow recovery from lingering impacts of the three-year drought and constrained purchasing power. Households in urban areas are also likely to face food consumption gaps due to high unemployment rates and macroeconomic impediments; households will likely employ Crisis level coping strategies through January 2025. Additionally, remittances from Iran and Pakistan are expected to remain lower than normal, constraining a critical source of income for many households, especially those in the central highlands. Income associated with fruit production (mainly apples and grapes) has supported household food purchases in provinces such as Kabul, Wardak, Kapisa, and Herat, helping to alleviate food consumption gaps.
Land preparation for winter wheat planting in eastern and northern parts of the country is expected to start after the completion of the rice and maize harvests, likely in mid-October. Despite a lack of access to agricultural inputs (particularly in the north where drought impacts and reduced purchasing power are pronounced), winter wheat planting is expected to be at near-average levels.
In southern provinces, the second season bean harvest has begun. Beans fetch relatively high prices and are critical to household livelihoods and income. Second season rice and maize harvests are expected to start in early to mid-October in southern and northern provinces, with near-to-average production expected with the positive of impacts of the near-to-average 2024 March/April rainfall. Orchard production (mainly apples and grapes) is ongoing in central and western provinces and supplying domestic markets; however, income from orchard fruits has been below average due to persisting import bans imposed by the government of Pakistan in July, associated with higher custom taxes.
In August, the prices of staple food items such as wheat, flour, sugar, pulses, and rice were relatively stable compared to July. This stability has been supported by typically lower market demand at this time of year as households have sufficient stocks from the June harvests in lowland provinces. The start of harvests in the highlands is also leading to increased wheat supply on the market. Additionally, consistent imports from neighboring countries and the appreciation of the Afghani (AFN) against other major currencies (notably the USD) have further contributed to food price stability. However, ongoing road rehabilitation work on Salang Pass – a crucial trade route connecting the northern and southern provinces – has resulted in road closures. Transporters have been diverted to alternate secondary routes, leading to a moderate increase in diesel prices by 5 percent compared to July. This price hike is anticipated to persist for the next two to three months and may result in higher transportation costs and slight increases in food prices, particularly imported wheat flour.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Afghanistan Key Message Update September 2024: Average orchard production is expected in central and western provinces in September/October, 2024.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.