As the lean season begins, millions of people face food consumption gaps

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Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected through at least May 2026 due to prolonged drought, weak economic conditions, and returnee influx. Food security is expected to deteriorate in Faryab, Ghor, and Daykundi provinces with Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes anticipated to emerge in early 2026 and persisting until the 2026 harvest begins. A below-average 2025 wheat harvest has caused a reduction in both household food stocks and market availability. Due to this, depleting winter stocks will force households to become reliant on markets to meet their food consumption needs. However, income-generating opportunities are also limited during the winter. The combined impact of depleted food stocks and lower income due to a lack of labor opportunities will further restrict household access to food. Limitations in ability to earn income are expected to be the most severe in areas of the central and northern highlands.
Despite below-average soil moisture associated with the persistent drought conditions, winter wheat planting for the 2026 harvest is ongoing countrywide, mainly in irrigated areas. Soil moisture conditions will likely remain below average through the winter planting season. In southern and northeastern regions, farmers are relying on deep wells to irrigate farmland before planting. Total area planted of winter wheat is expected to be below average this year compared to last year and the long-term average, according to key informants.
Precipitation between November and January is anticipated to be below average, with outcomes dependent on regional storm patterns that can deliver localized heavy precipitation. Despite expected below-average precipitation between November and January, in eastern and southeastern areas, farmers remain optimistic about the upcoming precipitation between November and January, improving soil moisture conditions.
Snowpack and snow water volumes are expected to be below average through December 2025, especially in the northeast, limiting irrigation water availability for winter wheat planting. However, groundwater has been a reliable substitute for surface water in many areas of the country, such as in eastern, southeastern, southwestern, northern, and northeastern provinces, reducing stress from surface water limitations.
Vegetation conditions through November are expected to be below average across much of the country, primarily due to below-average cumulative precipitation in 2024/25 and above-average temperatures. Pasture is expected to be sparse during the winter months due to low water availability. However, pasture is expected to green and become available in the spring, around April and May. Improved pasture conditions in 2026 will likely provide better grazing areas for livestock, leading to improved livestock body conditions and overall productivity.
As of October 1, 2025, approximately 793,000 returnees have entered Afghanistan from Iran and Pakistan, bringing the total number of returnees since January 2025 to approximately 3.3 million. Between October 1 and November 30, 2025, nearly 160,000 individuals left the country, compared to around 485,000 in the same period last year. The ongoing deportation campaigns in Pakistan and Iran have resulted in greater constraints for individuals that would typically migrate for wage labor, resulting in a reduction in remittances and the loss of key income sources.
Staple food prices remained near average in October compared to September due to steady food imports (particularly wheat and wheat flour) from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Russia; the import of other commodities (such as vegetable oil) from or via Iran; and government reductions on import tariffs. As of October 2025, wheat, wheat flour, and cooking oil prices are 24 percent, 23 percent, and 11 percent lower than the five-year average, respectively. Rice prices were stable compared to the previous month and the five-year average, but have increased by 12 percent compared to last year. With below-average production, heavy reliance on imports, and rising transportation costs, food prices are expected to increase during the winter. The border closure between Afghanistan and Pakistan has sharply reduced trade flows and is expected to contribute to price increases. The Food Security and Agricultural Cluster (FSAC) cash basket, which includes wheat flour, rice, pulses, oil, and salt, remains similar to the previous month and the previous year, but was 16 percent lower compared to the five-year average.
Annual headline inflation eased to 2.1 percent in September, down from 3.1 percent in August, driven primarily by slight declines in food prices, according to the World Bank. Non-food prices, however, increased by 5 percent due to rising housing costs and increased demand for essential services amid the continued return of Afghans from Pakistan and Iran. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, remained high at 4.9 percent, reflecting continued pressure on domestic prices and strengthening underlying demand.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Afghanistan Key Message Update November 2025: As the lean season begins, millions of people face food consumption gaps, 2025.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.