A dry start to the 2023/24 wet season delays winter wheat planting

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Widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist in the north and central and northeastern highlands until the next harvest; households are expected to have few food stocks and rely on lower-than-normal purchasing power. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will become more widespread as households consume food stocks and labor opportunities decrease. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to be ongoing in much of the southern half of the country as household food stocks are expected to last through the winter months, allowing households to meet their food needs.
Despite the ongoing El Niño and expectations of a favorable start to the 2023/2024 wet season, early season precipitation for October to November is well below average across most of the country and has delayed wheat planting. However, winter wheat planting is ongoing at normal levels in southern provinces where precipitation is favorable. Short-term forecasts show continued poor rainfall through the end of December, when the winter wheat planting window closes. If the planting window for winter wheat is missed, there will be an opportunity to plant spring wheat come early 2024.
Economic conditions remain poor overall, despite the continued negative annual headline inflation, and appreciation of the Afghani (AFN). The AFN has appreciated by 20 percent between November 2023 and 2022. According to WFP, the value of the strategic reserves (although frozen) have improved, therefore guaranteeing the AFN, while the continued injection of USD is improving access to cash. In November, food prices on average stabilized in line with inflation and below the three-year average. This stability is attributed to factors such as local foods becoming available on the market and the strengthening of the AFN. The strength of the AFN has also helped to facilitate stable and smooth imports from neighbouring countries like Kazakhstan, Iran, and Pakistan.
In November, the movement of forcibly deported Afghans from Pakistan into Afghanistan continued, albeit at a slower rate than in October. According to UNHCR, around 428,000 Afghans have been deported and entered Afghanistan predominately through the Torkham and Spin Boldak border crossings. The government is trying to relocate many of these people to their areas of origin; however, the winter season presents multiple challenges, including lack of shelter and opportunities to earn income for food purchases. Returnees are putting further pressure on already weak labor markets in the areas where they are settling.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Afghanistan Key Message Update November 2023: A dry start to the 2023/24 wet season delays winter wheat planting, 2023.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.