Likely atypically low winter food stocks threaten food access through early 2026

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Acute food security conditions are expected to decline through at least early 2026 amid four consecutive years of drought, economic challenges, and the influx of returnees from Iran and Pakistan. The below-average 2025 harvest, particularly of rainfed crops in northern and western regions, has limited the typical seasonal improvements. In drought-affected northern and western regions, some households could face large food consumption deficits as below-average first and second season crop production and reduced livestock income limit their ability to stock food for the winter, leading to an early depletion of already scarce food reserves.
A total of 2.3 million Afghans have returned from Iran and Pakistan in 2025. Since April and as of August 8, 2025, approximately 1.58 million Afghans have returned from Iran and 349,200 from Pakistan. Many returnees arrive without assets or belongings. Despite limited labor opportunities, returnees often settle in urban areas that have already strained labor markets; however, some returnees move to their district or village of origin due to the high cost of living in urban areas. The situation is expected to worsen after the September 6 deadline for forced deportations from Iran and the non-renewal of Proof of Registration cards in Pakistan. With the winter season starting in late 2025, labor opportunities and daily wages are projected to seasonally decline, leading to below-average household purchasing power. Some humanitarian food and shelter assistance has been provided to returnees at key entry points, specifically in Islam Qala (Herat), Milak (Nimroz), Torkham (Nangarhar), and Spin Boldak (Kandahar).
In June 2025, core inflation rose to 2.9 percent from 3.4 percent in May 2025, signaling gradual economic normalization. Inflation rose 0.2 percent year-on-year in June 2025 from -6.0 percent in June 2024, driven by recovering domestic demand and a 2.6 percent rise in non-food prices. Food prices remain stable, only decreasing by 2.1 percent due to stable imports and a steady AFN. However, there were minimal impacts on households' economic conditions due to persistent poverty, unemployment, and limited financial access. Compounding factors include structural issues, the influx of returning migrants in a competitive labor market, and consecutive droughts.
Staple food prices, including wheat, flour, sugar, and rice, remained stable in July 2025. This price stability is due to ongoing wheat and pulse harvests, a steady AFN, stable diesel prices, and consistent imports from trading partners. Flour and wheat prices in July were 23 percent lower compared to the five-year average. The Food Security and Agriculture Cluster’s food basket – made up of wheat flour, pulses, rice, cooking oil, and salt – was stable compared to June and last year, while decreasing by 13 percent compared to the five-year average. Despite lower food prices compared to average, households’ access to food remains low due to the compounded effects of the change in government in 2021, four years of persistent drought, and the influx of returnees.
Second season crops, mainly maize and rice, are under severe stress in the eastern, northern, and southern areas of the country due to significantly below-average rainfall during the wet season. Groundwater extraction is limited and insufficient to irrigate farmland in the eastern and northern regions. While monsoon-associated precipitation has occurred in some regions, it has not substantially improved cropping conditions. According to field reports, second season crops, particularly maize, have almost failed in downstream areas in eastern provinces due to irrigation water shortages. Melon and watermelon harvests are ongoing in the northeastern and southern provinces at near-average levels. Similarly, grape and apple harvests have recently started in the southern and central provinces with expected near-average production. However, low domestic market prices and limited export opportunities remain a concern for farmers, resulting in below-average income from these cash crops.
The ongoing drought has resulted in unfavorable pasture conditions, particularly in the northern, western, and central highland regions. Atypical livestock migration from higher-elevation grazing areas due to a lack of pastures has been observed, and higher-than-normal livestock sales are ongoing as herders seek to preempt feared future livestock losses due to fodder shortages and resulting poor body conditions.
Remittances from Gulf and Western countries have continued normally, providing vital financial support, particularly in eastern and southern regions. Remittances from family members working in Iran and Pakistan – which were a primary source of income for households in the central, western, northeastern, and central highland regions – have declined sharply in association with the recent mass deportation of Afghans. Many Afghan returnees and households formerly reliant on remittances from Iran and Pakistan are likely to face food deficits due to limited income-earning opportunities and economic barriers to reintegration.
In July, WFP supported 1.7 million individuals, delivered 3,000 metric tons (MT) of food, and provided 1.4 million USD in cash assistance. This included Emergency Food Assistance for 694,500 people, who received 330 MT of food and 619,700 USD in cash assistance. Additionally, the WFP provided 2,571 MT of Specialized Nutritious Food to 523,000 malnourished women and children. While WFP operations in Afghanistan received contributions from the European Union, Germany, and Indonesia, humanitarian operations are only 12 percent funded for the next six months.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Afghanistan Key Message Update August 2025: Likely atypically low winter food stocks threaten food access through early 2026, 2025.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.