Afghanistan
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- Four years of consecutive drought conditions are driving Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity outcomes across the central, northern, and western highlands and northern rainfed belt between October and May. Moreover, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected in Faryab, Daykundi, and Ghor provinces, where the impacts of drought are most severe, between February and May. Drought conditions have reduced agricultural productivity, weakened livestock conditions, and reduced income generating opportunities, significantly limiting access to food.
- Afghanistan has experienced its fourth consecutive year of meteorological drought, with hydrological impacts beginning in the northeast and north in May 2020 and expanding to other regions by February 2021. As of September 2025, groundwater levels are in the bottom 30th percentile countrywide, with most areas in the bottom 5th percentile, compounded by low precipitation, below-average snowpack, decreased stream flows, and historically low reservoir levels. While cumulative precipitation between October 2025 and May 2026 is forecast to be average, rainfall is expected to be below-average through January, resulting in below-average winter wheat planting. Subsequently, cumulative precipitation is expected to be average between February and May 2026, providing much needed reprieve during spring planting. However, above-average temperatures will still likely prolong the impacts of drought through high evapotranspiration, causing soil and vegetation desiccation.
- Drought conditions have severely reduced agricultural production, particularly in Faryab, Jawzjan, Samangan, Ghor, Badghis, Zabul, Nimroz, and Daykundi, with near failure of 2025 rainfed wheat production. Based on the precipitation forecast, 2026 wheat production is also expected to be below average. Farmers are expected to prepare less land and reduce planted area for 2025/26 winter wheat production due to poor start of season rainfall and reduced income to purchase inputs. Average precipitation in early 2026 will not be sufficient to offset high temperatures and persistent meteorological drought conditions, resulting in a below-average rainfed wheat harvest starting in May 2026. Poor pasture conditions have resulted in deteriorated livestock conditions, forcing herders to migrate or conduct distress sales. Minimal grazing land and fodder shortages will continue deteriorating livestock conditions, depleting vital income and food sources for households.
- Households will face widening food consumption gaps during the winter season due to substantially below-average to failed 2025 wheat production, with limited income-generating opportunities to purchase food. The influx of returnees from Iran and Pakistan will further strain the labor market and cause a sharp reduction of remittances, which will reduce household income. Livestock body conditions will worsen with limited fodder and pasture availability, causing atypical distress sales at low prices. In the near-term, households will likely engage in negative coping strategies such as reducing meal size and quantity, atypically selling livestock, selling home or land, and taking out high-interest loans.
Figure 1
Source: FEWS NET
Figure 2
Source: FEWS NET
Figure 3
Source: NOAA
Figure 4
Source: USGS/FEWS NET
Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Afghanistan FEWS NET Analysis Note November 2025: Impacts of Dry Conditions on Food Security in Afghanistan, October 2025 - May 2026, 2025.
An analysis note is a FEWS NET product that provides targeted information on food security-related issues across FEWS NET geographies.