High food prices continue to limit improvements in levels of food insecurity

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Many poor households throughout Venezuela that receive income in USD and have access to financial support through remittances and social programs, such as the Local Supply and Production Committees (CLAP), continue to suffer from Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity due to the high prices of food and other basic needs. However, there are also poor households that earn their income mainly in local currency (VED), in particular public sector workers and retirees, and some of these households do not have access to social protection programs or remittances. Among this population, located mainly in the peri-urban areas of the states bordering Colombia and the Capital District, access to food is even more limited. These households continue to experience food consumption gaps, reflecting Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.
Based on seasonal and economic trends, acute food insecurity is expected to improve slightly over the remainder of the projection period. Households with formal employment will receive double wages from October to January, while households working in the informal sector will benefit from increased consumer spending on goods and services during the year-end holidays. Remittances and social protection programs also tend to increase during this period. In addition, rural areas will additionally benefit from local crops, although to a lesser extent than in 2022. Although Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity will persist, the number of households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is expected to decrease.
Subsistence farmers are expected to experience a reduction in the primary maize and secondary rice crop harvests in late 2023 due to low soil moisture availability. Below-average rain and above-average temperatures are forecast to continue in Venezuela, accentuating current conditions especially in the north and the Los Llanos region, though mitigated by irrigation systems. However, imports are the most critical factor affecting food availability in markets given that Venezuela relies on imports for over 60 percent of its food supply.
Overall, household purchasing power in USD remains stable, but households that rely on income in VED have much lower purchasing power, limiting their access to food. Monthly food costs have remained stable in USD compared to the previous month and have decreased slightly compared to August 2022. However, prices in VED, although presenting lower price volatility in the last six months, remain more than 300 percent above August 2022. The increase in prices in VED is reflected both in the monthly inflation rate, which was 13.5 percent in August, and in the annual inflation rate, which was 423 percent in August, according to estimates by Síntesis Financiera. Inflation is driven in part by the depreciation of the VED, which has lost almost 385 percent of its value since August 2022. In addition, the recently implemented collection of customs duties and nationalization fees, which until now had not been collected, caused an adjustment to the commercial costs of imported products.
CLAP distribution continues monthly in the Capital District, while it has decreased to every two or three months in the border areas with Colombia and in the eastern region. The quantity of products, however, are similar across regions and there has been an improvement in the number of calories provided to each household. In March, the distribution contributed between 13 and 20 percent required for an average household, while in August it covered between 22 and 25 percent. However, the decrease in the frequency of distributions has resulted in fewer calories on average for each household, affecting food availability and consumption.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Venezuela Key Message Update September 2023: High food prices continue to limit improvements in levels of food insecurity, 2023.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.