Poor macroeconomic conditions are driving food insecurity in Venezuela

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In late 2024, FEWS NET projected that some states in Venezuela would most likely be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through May 2025, but 1.0-1.49 million people would likely face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. FEWS NET expected that most poor households’ access to food would be supported by seasonal agricultural production, imported food volumes, seasonal income from holiday bonuses (Aguinaldos), food and income from social safety net programs – including Comités Locales de Abastecimiento y Producción (CLAP) distributions and school feeding programs – and remittances. However, much of the population would continue to face difficulty meeting their minimum food needs without foregoing essential non-food needs due to limited income and low purchasing power. Moreover, FEWS NET assessed that very poor households without access to income in USD or social safety net programs – who are largely concentrated in the urban and peri-urban areas of Caracas, Anzoátegui, Monagas, Sucre, and Zulia – would face food consumption deficits.
Food security conditions in Venezuela have deteriorated over the past year. Inflation rates increased by over 100 percent in 2024-2025 due to foreign currency instability and deteriorating sociopolitical conditions. Most of the population relies on markets to access food, and food prices remain high while household purchasing power is low. Social safety net programs continue to play a critical role in mitigating the scale and severity of acute food insecurity. While end-of-year harvests and seasonal increases in income are expected to stabilize outcomes through January, the trajectory of acute food insecurity is expected to worsen from February to May due to the impact of deteriorating macroeconomic conditions on households’ financial access to food. Additionally, reduced funding for humanitarian food assistance is affecting partners’ operational capacity, forcing WFP to scale down food assistance programs from 11 to four states.
The food supply has remained adequate to meet demand due to a combination of domestic production and imports, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). However, domestic maize production has declined by 14 percent this year due to limited seed supplies and irregular rainfall, which led to dry conditions that reduced area planted and crop yields and has led to a reduction in household income from maize sales. In addition, key maize-producing states such as Portuguesa experienced severe flooding and soil erosion. The shortfall led to increased demand for imported maize for poultry feed, raising household expenditures on inputs for poultry production and limiting income for essential non-food needs. Looking forward, prospects for second-season maize and main season rice are more favorable, with above-average rainfall forecasted through March; however, concurrent above-average temperatures pose a risk of reducing soil moisture for crop development.
High staple food prices and an economic slowdown are the main constraints on poor households’ access to food, especially among the poorest households in urban and peri-urban areas. Food prices for cereals, animal proteins, and fats remain high, contributing to rising monthly and annual inflation rates from 2024 to 2025. As in past years, high inflation is linked to the depreciating value of the VED, which is driven by inadequate government revenue and deterioration in sociopolitical factors. Annual inflation rates are projected to reach 270 percent by the end of December, and the International Monetary Fund projects a surge to 682 percent in 2026. This reverses the downward trend observed in 2024, when the inflation rate fell below 100 percent, and coincides with projections of a decline in real GDP growth rates from 5.3 percent in 2024 to 0.5 percent in 2025, followed by an anticipated 3.0 percent contraction in 2026.
Government revenue remains highly dependent on the oil sector, and the impacts of sanctions on Venezuela’s oil exports continue to drive foreign currency reserve shortages, especially in USD. In turn, this constrains the Central Bank´s capacity to contain local currency depreciation in Venezuela’s import-dependent economy, leading to the cycle of high inflation that has weakened the purchasing power of households who primarily earn income in VED despite the informal dollarization of the local economy. Oil production has steadily increased throughout 2025, averaging 927,000 barrels per day; however, exports did not grow proportionally and remain slightly below 2024 due to infrastructure challenges, sanctions limiting access to markets, and Chevron’s limited operations. As one of the few international companies still allowed to work in Venezuela under strict conditions, Chevron’s operations account for approximately 25 percent of national oil production and have driven 80 percent of Venezuela´s oil production growth since 2023. However, uncertainty regarding sanctions and geopolitical tensions will continue to limit foreign currency inflows and constrain oil export revenues.
A national household survey conducted in July/August 2025 suggests household income levels have increased compared to last year; however, levels of poverty remain high amid persistent inflation and most poor households still struggle to cover basic needs due to high food prices. On average, household income rose approximately 43 percent (from 165 to 238 USD per month), with households in Guárico and Monagas states reporting the lowest income levels. Key sources of income include wages (54 percent of households), self-employment (50 percent), and social safety nets (41 percent), with just 11 percent of households reporting that they received remittances (down from 12.9 percent in 2024). Migration outflows from Venezuela have slowed. Based on available data, the number of Venezuelan migrants in Latin America marginally increased from 6.7 to 6.9 million from November 2024 and May 2025. Colombia remains the main destination, hosting 42 percent of the migrant population, followed by Peru and Brazil. Meanwhile, available estimates of the number of Venezuelan migrants deported from the U.S. in 2025 stand at approximately 14,400 people.
Available information on food assistance indicates distributions have declined. As of August, the Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reported that 763,000 Venezuelans were receiving food and livelihoods assistance, mostly comprising in-kind food distributions and school feeding programs in Apure, Táchira, and Falcón. Due to low funding, it is highly likely that assistance will decline further in the coming months. Government social safety net programs are also a key source of relief, including the monthly Bono Contra la Guerra Económica (increased from 90 to 120 USD per month in April), CLAP distributions, and the monthly Cesta Ticket (allowance of 40 USD provided to private and public workers for purchasing food), as well as the Aguinaldos (distributed from mid-October to January). It is also noteworthy that the government raised the public sector minimum wage in May in response to rising inflation. However, the number of beneficiaries reached with CLAP distributions declined from 57 percent to 40 percent between November 2024 and August 2025, with Nueva Esparta, Zulia, and Falcón among the worst affected (REDHUM). As of October, the subsidized CLAP cost just 25 VED (0.11 USD).
Available data from surveys conducted in July/August by REDHUM Venezuela found that the proportion of households that reported using coping strategies decreased: buying cheaper foods fell from 68 to 60 percent, reducing meal sizes fell from 33 to 30 percent, and going hungry for the entire day decreased from 11 percent to 9 percent. While representative survey data on acute malnutrition levels is unavailable, CARITAS recently found that 8.3 percent of children under five that were actively screened for acute malnutrition were acutely malnourished based on weight-for-height z-scores, dropping from 13.6 in 2022. However, an increasing trend in reliance on food consumption coping strategies and acute malnutrition levels is likely in 2026, as rising inflation and contracting economic opportunities will erode household purchasing power and lead to reductions in financial access to food.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Venezuela Key Message Update November 2025: Poor macroeconomic conditions are driving food insecurity in Venezuela, 2025.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.