Subtle macroeconomic improvements materialize, but low purchasing power persists

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Across Venezuela, poor households are expected to continue facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through September. Persistent poor macroeconomic conditions are constraining purchasing power and limiting access to food as inflationary pressures continue to increase food prices in the local currency. Pockets of poor households without access to foreign currency or social safety net programs are likely to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes as their incomes are insufficient to cover the high costs of food, resulting in food consumption gaps and the use of unsustainable coping strategies. Despite some concentrations in urban and peri-urban areas, the number of households experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are not high enough to change the area-level phase classification in any given state.
Crude oil production increased 10 percent from January to February and remained stable compared to February 2025, according to OPEC. Meanwhile, oil exports declined slightly in February compared to January 2026, due to shifts in international trading partners and the drawdown of previously accumulated oil. International Brent crude oil prices have remained volatile throughout March, averaging nearly 100 USD per barrel. While this represents an increase of 36 percent compared to last year, the increase in oil revenues is sharper in Venezuela as the government previously sold crude at below-market value under sanctions.
Foreign currency inflows and government revenues are expected to increase as Venezuela progressively sells more crude oil and other extracted resources. January reforms to Venezuela’s Hydrocarbons Law now allow both foreign and domestic companies – beyond Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA), the state-owned oil and gas company – to invest in and commercialize crude extraction. Firms including Shell and Chevron are negotiating agreements to expand production in the Orinoco belt. In addition, on March 13, the U.S. Office of Assets Control (OFAC) announced three new licenses (46B, 48A, and 49A), further easing sanctions by allowing the export and trade of Venezuelan crude and allowing new investment contracts. Additionally, Venezuela’s state-owned mining company is set to export up to 1,000 kg of gold to U.S markets.
These foreign currency inflows are contributing to the moderation of exchange rate variations and inflation rate increases. The gap between the official and parallel exchange rates narrowed slightly as the official exchange rate rose to 395.53 VED/USD from 341.60 VED/USD in January, showing a monthly increase of 13.6 percent, while the parallel exchange rate showed a slight decrease, dropping to 578.27 VED/USD from 595.93 VED/USD in January. According to the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV), the monthly inflation rate in February dropped to 14.6 percent from 32.6 percent in January, while the annual inflation rate reached 618 percent, 23 percentage points above January, demonstrating a continued upward trend, but with a more moderate increase than in recent months. Food prices reflected mixed trends: while prices in local currency increased at a slower pace, prices of wheat and maize flour, chicken, eggs and substitutes increased in USD due to seasonality and speculation.
Monthly cash transfers via social safety net programs continue for most households. In March, the Ingreso Contra la Guerra Económica (ICGE) increased 30 USD (from 120 to 150 USD); however, the parallel market value of this and other social safety net benefits continues below the indexed value, given the persistent gap between the official and parallel market exchange rates. Thus, the 150 USD indexed value translated to slightly more than 100 USD on the parallel market. While this remains enough for recipient households to cover the cost of a minimum survival ration for a household of four, calculated at 88.20 USD in March, it continues to leave little room for the purchase of essential non-food items. The Comités Locales de Abastecimiento y Producción (CLAP) in-kind food assistance boxes were distributed in March in informal settlements in Caracas, containing locally produced food, including cooking oil, maize flour, canned sardines, sugar, pasta, and peas.
Impacts from the escalation in the Middle East are likely to be relatively muted in Venezuela, given its position as a net oil exporter. Modest international price transmission is anticipated – particularly for fertilizers and imported food items – although this is not expected to substantially hinder gradual macroeconomic improvements tied to improved government revenues. Nonetheless, elevated international prices for fertilizers are expected to result in reduced application and modest declines in expected yields, particularly for small producers during the upcoming winter season for maize and rice. Medium and large producers are likely to maintain typical yields. Any production shortfalls are expected to result in a slight increase in imports, while significant declines in national production are not anticipated, maintaining adequate food availability.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Venezuela Key Message Update March - September 2026: Subtle macroeconomic improvements materialize, but low purchasing power persists, 2026.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.