Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes emerge following high-magnitude earthquakes

• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in La Guaira, Distrito Capital (Caracas), Yaracuy, Carabobo, and Aragua following back-to-back earthquakes of 7.2 and 7.5 magnitude on June 24. Although post-disaster assessments are still ongoing, direct physical damage is expected to be billions of USD, while overall economic losses are likely to be higher. Among worst-affected poor households, disrupted livelihoods, asset and income losses, the deaths of working family members, and increased medical expenses amid sustained high inflation are driving food consumption gaps and the use of negative coping strategies. Across the rest of Venezuela, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected with pockets of households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), as extremely low purchasing power continues amid persistent local currency volatility and high general and food inflation rates. 
• In the immediate aftermath of the earthquakes, FEWS NET estimates that between 3.0-3.49 million people are in need of humanitarian food assistance. The population in need is expected to gradually decline through January 2027 as the clearing of rubble and debris, rebuilding, and restoration of basic services – alongside improving macroeconomic conditions – support the recovery of household livelihoods. 
• Macroeconomic conditions are likely to improve progressively, even though inflation will remain high. Government revenues are expected to increase due to higher oil production and exports and competitive international prices, supporting continued intervention to contain local currency depreciation and sustain social safety net benefits. Monthly inflation is expected to remain below 15 percent, while annual inflation is anticipated to remain close to 550 percent, similar to 2025 levels. In addition, the gap between the official and parallel exchange rate is expected to remain near 45 percent, eroding the real value of social safety net bonuses and household purchasing power even as the value of most benefits are expected to increase according to indexation. The government has announced an emergency response bonus, but details are limited. 

The analysis in this report is based on information available as of June 30, 2026.

Venezuela has been experiencing a macroeconomic crisis for over a decade, characterized by the accelerated loss of purchasing power due to local currency depreciation, high inflation rates, and productive and industrial capacity decline. Macroeconomic deterioration is strongly influenced by the country’s dependence on oil revenues: oil accounts for almost all export earnings and serves as the government´s primary revenue source, determining the government´s capacity to stabilize the exchange rate and finance public spending, including a robust social safety net. In this context, the volatility of the local currency drove the progressive, informal dollarization of the economy as a strategy to preserve purchasing power and facilitate commercial transactions. However, amid a substantial reduction in both income-generating activities and purchasing power, the economic crisis resulted in a significant flow of millions of Venezuelan migrants to other countries, mainly in South America.  

Between 2021 and 2024, the country experienced gradual economic stabilization, supported by the partial recovery of productive agricultural infrastructure as well as oil exports, with the granting of a restricted license to Chevron to operate joint ventures in oil production with Venezuela’s state-owned oil and gas company, Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA), in 2022. During this period, monthly and annual inflation rates slowed considerably and remained below 5 and 100 percent, respectively. However, renewed deterioration occurred in 2025, particularly during Q4. Inflation increased again, spiking to over 600 percent year-on-year, driven by the depreciation of the local currency, reduced foreign currency supply, and sociopolitical tensions. In early 2026, an easing of international sanctions began supporting increased government revenues, allowing for more regular government intervention in the foreign exchange market and gradually reducing macroeconomic volatility. 

Nearly 90 percent of the population lives in urban areas (Figure 1), and most households rely on multiple income streams (wages, remittances, and social safety net programs), including from multiple jobs, to cope with inflationary pressures. Most formal or informal private sector employees receive salaries in a combination of VED and USD, while the public sector pays in VED, creating disparities between private and public incomes. Venezuela utilizes multiple exchange rates, with an official rate set by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV), a parallel market rate established through informal transactions, and, more recently, a third rate set by BCV between the official and parallel rates used in the mechanism for introducing USD into the wider economy. The official exchange rate serves as a reference for taxes, salaries, and official transactions, while most households and businesses rely on the parallel exchange rate. Households receiving salaries in VED are therefore more vulnerable to experiencing losses in their purchasing power due to VED fluctuations and the conversion to USD at parallel market rates for daily transactions. Informal economic activities, such as informal wage labor, self-employment and petty trade, are an important income source for very poor households in urban areas, while agricultural activities support incomes in rural areas. However, incomes in the informal sector remain irregular and are more frequently paid in VED. Remittances also support receiving households, although their amount and frequency vary considerably. Nearly 60 percent of the population earned less than the equivalent of 100 USD per month in 2025, with poor households earning far less. Between May 2025 and May 2026, the VED has lost over 450 percent its value. Although incomes have risen in response to inflationary pressures across the private formal and informal sectors, they have not kept pace with actual inflation rates.   

The social safety net system in Venezuela constitutes a key source of income, assisting in covering food needs, with a variety of government-paid incomes, such as the Ingreso Contra la Guerra Económica (ICGE), (monthly payments indexed in USD at the official exchange rate and paid in VED), subsidized food boxes called Comités Locales de Abastecimiento y Producción (CLAP), and the Cestaticket (an electronic food voucher). Public workers and pensioners, who receive their income in VED, are the main beneficiaries of most bonuses; however, a significant percentage of the population has historically received the Cestaticket, ICGE, and/or CLAP deliveries. For private sector workers and those employed in the informal sector, there is a wide range of smaller cash transfers available, and reports indicate that overall coverage from these benefits is high; however, the total value of cash transfers that a poor household receives can vary greatly; households must subscribe to receive each type and may not be aware of, or able to apply to, all for which they are eligible. As benefits are indexed in USD at the official exchange rate but paid in VED, the parallel market value of the benefits fluctuates, with recipients losing purchasing power when the gap between the two rates widens. 

Due to macroeconomic conditions, the prices of staple products in VED often vary significantly over short periods. A staple diet for most households includes rice, flour, bread, pasta, oil or margarine, and substitutes such as plantain, pumpkin, and cassava, while chicken and eggs are the main sources of animal protein. However, households adjust their purchasing preferences depending on prices and seasonal availability.  

National production is supported by irrigation systems and is organized into two annual harvest cycles: summer (February-May) and winter (August-November). Key crops include maize, rice, beans, cassava, plantain, and vegetables. Since 2021, agricultural production has stabilized, although it remains below levels reported prior to the macroeconomic crisis (reference year 2013). Despite improvements, Venezuela requires cereal imports to meet domestic food needs; imports typically account for 60 percent of the domestic supply. Food availability has improved since the peak of the macroeconomic crisis, and markets are typically supplied with both national and imported products. 

Learn more

Follow these links for additional information: 

• Latest Venezuela Food Security Outlook: February to September 2026 
• Latest Food Security Outlook Update for Venezuela: April to September 2026 
• Latest Venezuela Key Message Update: May 2026
• Overview of FEWS NET’s scenario development methodology 
• FEWS NET’s approach to estimating the population in need  
• Overview of the IPC and IPC-compatible analysis 
• FEWS NET’s approach to humanitarian food assistance analysis 

• On June 24, back-to-back earthquakes of 7.2 and 7.5 magnitude struck north-central Venezuela, affecting more than 3.9 million people and prompting a state of emergency. Although the epicenters were in Yaracuy and Carabobo states, the earthquake moved east along fault lines, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), significantly affecting La Guaira, Distrito Capital (Caracas), and Aragua, while Miranda, Falcón, Lara, and Guárico were also negatively impacted (Figure 2). Over 600 aftershocks have since been registered, hampering rescue efforts and initial damage assessments. As of June 29, more than 15,800 people had been displaced, 1,700 killed, and 5,000 injured, but figures are expected to rise. Multiple temporary sites have been set up in La Guaira, Caracas, and Miranda and many households are sheltering in open spaces, parks, and plazas due to loss of homes or concern about staying in homes with potential structural damage. Infrastructure damage, including collapsed buildings, damaged roads, and disruptions to basic services is widespread in affected areas, with thousands of buildings reportedly damaged, particularly in La Guaira. Preliminary assessments suggest direct physical damage to be between 4.7 and 8.7 billion USD.  

• Foreign currency inflows continued to improve in May with an estimated 1.35 billion USD injected into the Venezuelan economy by BCV. Crude oil exports rose slightly to 1.25 million bpd in May, reflecting a sustained upward trend with three consecutive months of export increases supported by increased external demand and competitive international prices. According to OPEC, crude oil production remained above 1 million bpd in May, for a second consecutive month, reflecting gradual improvements in production despite ongoing structural constraints including limited access to key inputs and deteriorated infrastructure. Between June 1 and 22, WTI and Brent international oil prices decreased, averaging 89.97 and 90.31 USD/barrel, respectively.
• Exchange rate dynamics and BCV interventions are reducing macroeconomic volatility. In May 2026, the official and parallel exchange rates both increased by approximately 8 percent compared to April, reaching 519.15 VED/USD and 702.01 VED/USD, respectively. The gap between rates remained similar to April, at nearly 36 percent. However, higher government spending, especially on social safety net bonus payments, puts more pressure on the national currency, causing depreciation despite higher foreign currency inflows. The recently introduced BCV intervention rate – a third exchange rate set between the official and parallel rates – has remained stable, increasing slightly to 615.52 VED/USD in June, reflecting ongoing BCV efforts to contain volatility. While macroeconomic improvements are visible, partners report reduced availability of USD in cash for everyday transactions, with most conducted using digital channels, as banks and other businesses are reinvesting their hard currency. 
• Inflation rates show gradual, relative improvement. Monthly inflation declined from 10.6 to 6.3 percent, between April and May 2026, the lowest in 19 months. Annual inflation also decreased, falling from 611.9 percent to 524.5 percent. Similarly, monthly food inflation decreased to 6.3 percent from 11.5 percent, while the annual food inflation rate dropped to 564.2 percent, decreasing from 671.8 percent registered in April. However, price increases in VED for key staples remain higher than overall food inflation and price increases have also been registered in USD for the second consecutive month. Food prices continue to rise due to speculation, high import costs, and stronger domestic demand associated with improved economic conditions, the resumption of industrial processing activities for local consumption (such as cassava flour), and the export of certain processed foods.
• The government has announced the Bono de Contingencia 2026 for earthquake-affected households , with amounts ranging from approximately 149 to 747 USD at the official exchange rate, equivalent to an estimated 110.17 to 552.35 USD at the parallel exchange rate; however, details on targeting, coverage, timing, and duration are not publicly available. Regular bonuses have also seen minor changes in June: the ICGE has been renamed as Ingreso Integral de los Trabajadores (IIT) and remained indexed at 200 USD, but is now split into two monthly payments, while the newly renamed Minimum Integrated Income (IMI) (which includes both the IIT and the CestaTicket) remained indexed at 240 USD but is currently worth approximately 177.46 USD at the parallel exchange rate. Meanwhile, the monthly “Responsibility and Training” bonus for Ministry of Education staff increased by nearly 13 percent compared to May. In-kind CLAP distributions remain limited, with recent reports indicating they were free but with substantially reduced coverage, and only available for elderly citizens in Caracas and Aragua. 
• In June, rainfall distribution remained erratic. Soil moisture deficits have expanded in northwestern Venezuela, where below-average rainfall and above-normal temperatures have been observed since the onset of the rainy season. In Eastern Venezuela, precipitation has declined during June, partially offsetting early improvements. These combined effects have contributed to a decline in overall vegetation health; however, partners in the field reported favorable conditions throughout planting and early crop development – largely due to irrigation access – with a slightly delayed start of maize and rice planting for small producers in Los Llanos. 

Humanitarian food assistance

Following the June 24 earthquakes, humanitarian food assistance is in the early stages of delivery to affected areas. General License No. 60 allows for transactions related to earthquake relief efforts, and the UN’s Central Emergency Response Fund has allocated 15 million USD to the response, while multiple countries have offered bilateral assistance, likely to be channeled through the newly activated Venezuela Humanitarian Fund (VHF). WFP reportedly has approximately 3,000 MT of food already in country and is expected to target beneficiaries in La Guaira, Distrito Capital, Carabobo, Falcón, Yaracuy, Aragua, and Miranda. OCHA reported over 22,000 food parcels have been distributed so far. However, detailed information on food assistance deliveries is not yet publicly available. Throughout the rest of Venezuela, food assistance remains limited in scale and distribution. As of May 2026, WFP reached approximately 5,086 people in selected communities of Carabobo, Delta Amacuro, and Bolivar with general food distributions, according to the Food Security Cluster. This assistance remains insufficient relative to the scale of need to mitigate outcomes at the area-level. 

Following the June 24 earthquakes, acute food insecurity outcomes have worsened quickly in north-central Venezuela. Since the earthquakes occurred in the final week of the month, affected areas are still assessed as Stressed (IPC Phase 2) for the month of June overall, as a majority of the population in north-central areas could still meet their minimum food needs, though only maginally, until the earthquakes hit. However, many poor households are likely already facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in the aftermath of the earthquakes in La Guaira, Distrito Capital (Caracas), Yaracuy, Carabobo, and Aragua. Especially those who have been displaced, lost assets, cannot work, face new medical costs, or have limited access to government support, remittances, or USD income. Although damage assessments are ongoing, poor households in densely populated areas hit with the most destructive seismic activity are experiencing a substantial shock including asset losses, building collapse, widespread livelihood disruptions, and reduced incomes as typical informal labor opportunities decline. Middle and better-off households and small and medium businesses are focused on emergency concerns and recovery. Income shortfalls are expected to be felt most acutely by households who have lost working family members. However, livelihoods tied to oil production and refinery have not been negatively impacted, as these facilities reported no damage. Non-food expenditures have also increased in the immediate aftermath of the earthquakes as poor households cope with medical emergencies and assess the damage to houses and other assets.

Prior to the earthquakes, most poor households were experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, with just enough resources to secure a minimum, poor-quality diet; these new shocks are likely resulting in food consumption gaps or the use of negative coping strategies across many poor households. Partners in the field report that the situation in rural areas is not as severe as in the main cities; however, livelihood disruptions remain widespread, especially for those relying on informal economic activity. Reports indicate that some supermarkets in Caracas have already resumed normal activity and many smaller markets remain well-supplied with domestic production and imports. While the Bono de Contingencia 2026 is likely to improve access to food for recipients, details on exact amounts, targeting, and duration are insufficient to adequately assess its impact. Households with limited to no access to the Bono de Contingencia 2026, other benefits, or income in USD are of greatest concern. Outside of the worst-affected states, additional poor households whose livelihoods and assets have been negatively impacted by the earthquakes are also likely experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3), especially in urban and peri-urban areas such as Los Teques in Miranda, Coro in Falcón, Barquisimeto in Lara, and San Juan de Los Morros in Guárico. 

Across the rest of the country, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes persist, driven by poor macroeconomic conditions, particularly currency instability and high inflation, limiting households’ ability to meet their essential non-food needs without the use of coping strategies. Extremely high prices in VED, tied to ongoing depreciation, strong demand linked to improved economic conditions, speculation and resumption of industrial activities to produce processed food, as well as more recent price increases in USD, continue to limit access to food, particularly for households whose sources of income are in local currency. A portion of poor households in densely populated areas, especially those with irregular sources of income from informal economic activities (where approximately half of wages are paid in local currency), and little to no access to social safety net programs or remittances are likely facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, as their wages cannot keep pace with persistently high food prices. 

In rural, sparsely populated areas, households are partially offsetting food access constraints through own production (of both staples and substitutes), fishing, hunting, and wild foods gathering. However, recent rainfall and temperature anomalies and soil moisture conditions caused delays to the start of season for small farmers without access to irrigation. Medium and large producers have already started planting for maize, rice, and vegetables in the major states’ producers: Portuguesa, Guárico, Cojedes and Barinas, resulting in average income for most poor rural households in these areas. The country’s second largest petrochemical complex, which shut down briefly due to damage from the earthquakes, has already restarted typical operations, limiting disruption to the agriculture sector. Nonetheless, pockets of households are likely experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, especially in remote, sparsely populated areas where limited access to income in USD and constraints on online banking services restrict incomes and access to social safety net programs.  

• Post-earthquake assessments are still ongoing, but negative impacts to livelihoods, housing and other assets, and reduced coping capacity are expected to persist in north-central Venezuela, particularly in high-density populated areas of La Guaira, Distrito Capital (Caracas), Yaracuy, Carabobo and Aragua, through January 2027. Income-generating opportunities in affected areas, especially in the informal sector, are expected to remain below average amid the extensive damage. Physical and economic recovery is likely to be gradual, and some households will likely remain displaced. However, remittances are likely to increase to above-average levels in the immediate aftermath.  
• Extractive economies and associated government revenues are expected to progressively increase. Crude oil production is anticipated to remain above 1 million bpd, reaching as high as 1.35 million bpd by the end of the year, while export volumes are likely to continue increasing and remain above average. Brent crude and WTI oil prices – which serve as benchmarks for Venezuelan prices - are anticipated to moderate, declining to 85 and 80 USD/barrel, respectively, by January 2027 (Figure 3). Merey prices, specific to heavy Venezuelan crude, are not publicly available, but key informants indicate prices are likely to average 80 USD/barrel through 2026. Higher export volumes combined with competitive international oil prices, are expected to continue increasing government revenues to close to 30 billion USD, according to a local source, almost double from 2024 (17.5 billion USD) and 2025 (18.2 billion USD), strengthening government intervention capacity in foreign exchange markets and sustaining public spending on social safety net programs. Formal and informal income-earning opportunities linked to oil-related activities are expected to increase gradually, particularly in production areas. Gold exports are also projected to see moderate growth, supported by new international agreements with Mercuria and Heeney capital, easing international restrictions on gold trade, and new security conditions in mining areas, though production will remain constrained by aging extraction infrastructure. 

• Currency volatility and inflation are expected to ease compared to 2025. Depreciation is likely to slow, supported by increased foreign currency inflows associated with improved oil revenues and BCV interventions. The VED is expected to remain at historically high levels against the USD, with the official exchange rate between 650 and 1280 VED/USD and the parallel exchange rate between 850 and 1840 VED/USD. The gap between the two rates is expected to remain below 45 percent. Monthly inflation is likely to remain below 15 percent while yearly inflation is anticipated to progressively decline, remaining below 550 percent. 
• According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), national production of rice and maize for MY 2026/27 is expected to be above average, with rice harvests close to 2025 levels while maize production is likely to increase year-on-year due to expanded area planted, improved access to agricultural inputs, and increased local consumption. Wheat imports are expected to rise by 10 percent, driven by improved purchasing power and competitive wheat product prices leading to higher demand from the milling industry, as the government continues to restrict imported wheat flour and finished products to encourage domestic milling. 
• Despite adequate supply, food prices in VED, and to a lesser extent in USD, are projected to remain above average, driven by continued currency depreciation, strong demand tied to a perception of improved economic conditions, limited USD availability, and speculation. 
• Social safety net programs are expected to continue playing a central role in supporting household income, with government expenditure likely to increase post-disaster and in line with improved oil revenues. CLAP distributions are likely to remain limited and existing cash transfer programs are likely to remain in place and continue to be revised upwards according to their indexation to USD; however, their real value will remain affected by exchange rate differences. 
• In urban areas with relatively little to no impact from the recent earthquakes, labor demand and income are likely to be above average among poor households, driven by continued expansion of informal economic activities such as petty trade, street vendors, and daily service labor as macroeconomic conditions gradually improve. Income is expected to remain slightly above average and paid in USD or a combination of VED and USD. In border regions, cross-border trade is expected to continue at typical levels, primarily conducted in COP and less frequently in USD. In oil-producing areas, particularly in Maracaibo, Zulia, and gold-producing areas, such as Bolívar, both formal and informal economic activities are expected to improve. 
• Anticipated below-average erratic rainfall and above-average temperatures are likely to reduce soil moisture and increase the risk of pests and diseases, as well as reduce water levels in the Simón Bolívar Hydroelectric Plant, increasing the risk of disrupted electricity generation. Smallholder farmers, particularly those with limited access to inputs and irrigation, are likely to see below-average yields in some areas. Poultry are vulnerable to heat stress, and small livestock owners anticipate increased disease and illness among their flocks. In line with historical El Niño conditions, the Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be below average.

Humanitarian food assistance

• Information for planned, funded, and likely humanitarian food assistance is not currently available; however, deliveries are likely to increase compared to 2025 levels throughout the projection period in response to the June 24 earthquake emergency. However, as of June 30, uncertainty about the mechanism, coverage, and duration of assistance persists. 

Between June and September, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in La Guaira, Distrito Capital (Caracas), Yaracuy, Carabobo, and Aragua as substantial disruptions to livelihoods, asset losses, and reductions in labor demand and income from the June 24 earthquakes continue to constrain coping capacity and financial access to food. Elevated numbers of households facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) are also likely in Falcón, Lara, Miranda, and Guárico, although the impacts of the earthquakes are relatively fewer, maintaining area-level Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. Households that have lost working members of the household and most or all physical assets, who rely on informal work, and do not receive social safety net benefits or any international remittances are likely to be worst affected. Markets are likely to remain functioning and supplied with a combination of formal and informal imports and domestic production, with localized market disruptions expected to dissipate. However, the continuation of poor macroeconomic conditions, even as inflation rates moderate, are likely to sustain extremely high food prices in VED. With limited opportunities to earn in the more stable USD, purchasing power is expected to remain extremely low, and small to moderate food consumption gaps are likely to persist among poor households. In addition, a portion of poor households are expected to engage in additional, unsustainable coping strategies, such as reducing spending on health and other non-food essentials. 

From October 2026 to January 2027, the number of households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in earthquake-affected areas is expected to decline as livelihoods gradually recover, basic services are restored, and seasonal income improves from end-of-year double salaries and bonuses and increased economic activity and remittances around the Christmas holidays. Although these improvements are likely to result in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes at the state level, elevated numbers of households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) are expected to persist through the end of the outlook period as labor demand remains below average and households continue to rebuild assets and adjust livelihoods. Those with substantial asset or family losses, and who receive little to no social safety net benefits or income in USD, remain of highest concern. 

Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected throughout the rest of the country through January, driven by persistently high food prices, volatile local currency, and continued erosion of purchasing power. Macroeconomic conditions are likely to remain poor, but show relative stabilization supported by improvements in oil production and exports and increasing foreign currency inflows. Although monthly and annual inflation are likely to remain below 15 and 550 percent, respectively, the gap between official and parallel exchange rates is expected to be close to 45 percent, eroding the value of benefits and food prices are expected to remain high in local currency and to a lesser extent in USD, weakening purchasing power. Income earned in VED or indexed at the official exchange rate is expected to continue losing value, albeit at a slower pace than in 2025. As a result, most poor households will rely on multiple income sources and a variety of sustainable coping strategies to maintain food consumption, such as reducing dietary quality, purchasing on credit or borrowing, and reducing non-essential expenditures. A portion of households with little to no access to international remittances, income in USD, or social safety net programs is still expected to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) as food prices remain out of reach to households earning only in VED. Nonetheless, progressive macroeconomic recovery and seasonal improvements tied to end-of-the year bonuses and double salaries and increased remittances and economic activity around the Christmas holiday are expected to reduce the number of households experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes between October and January. While in sparsely populated rural areas, households are likely to engage in sustainable coping strategies, increasing reliance on market purchases during the lean season and supplementing with fishing, hunting, gathering, and own production. Above-average temperatures and below-average rainfall are not expected to have substantial impacts on national food production and market supply, and labor demand for key crops such as coffee, sugarcane, maize, and rice is expected to remain near average. Food stocks for small producers are likely to last through at least July, despite recent yield reductions and atypically low income from crop sales for those producers with limited to no access to irrigation. From August, worst-affected small producers are likely to increase their dependence on market purchase and coping strategies such as purchasing food on credit, consuming less preferred foods, and spending savings and, from October, national seasonal trends are expected to also improve household food access in rural areas. 

Early warning of acute food insecurity outcomes requires forecasting months in advance to provide decision makers with sufficient time to budget, plan, and respond to expected humanitarian crises. However, due to the complex and variable factors that influence acute food insecurity, definitive predictions are impossible. Scenario Development is a methodology that allows FEWS NET to meet decision makers’ needs by developing a “most likely” scenario of the future. 

FEWS NET’s scenario development process applies the Disaster Risk Reduction framework and a livelihoods-based lens to assess acute food insecurity outcomes. A household’s risk of acute food insecurity depends not only on hazards (such as drought) but also the household’s vulnerability to these hazards (e.g., the level of dependence on rainfed crop production for food and income) and coping capacity (which considers both the household’s ability to cope with a given hazard and the use of negative coping strategies that harm future capacity). To evaluate these factors, FEWS NET bases this analysis on a strong foundational understanding of local livelihoods. FEWS NET’s scenario development process also accounts for the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework; the Four Dimensions of Food Security; and UNICEF’s Nutrition Conceptual Framework, and is closely aligned with the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analytical framework.

• How does FEWS NET analyze current acute food insecurity outcomes? FEWS NET assesses the extent to which households can meet their minimum caloric needs. This analysis converges evidence of current food security conditions with available direct evidence of household-level food consumption and livelihood change. FEWS NET also considers available area-level evidence of nutritional status and mortality, focusing on whether these reflect the physiological impacts of acute food insecurity. FEWS NET uses the globally recognized five-phase Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) scale to classify current acute food insecurity outcomes, and the analysis is IPC-compatible. In addition, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of ongoing humanitarian food assistance.
• How does FEWS NET develop key assumptions underpinning the most likely scenario? A key step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is the development of evidence-based assumptions about factors that affect food security. These include hazards and anomalies in food security conditions that will impact the evolution of household food and income during the projection period, as well as factors that may affect nutritional status. FEWS NET also develops assumptions about factors expected to behave normally. Together, these assumptions form the foundation of the “most likely” scenario. 
• How does FEWS NET analyze projected acute food insecurity outcomes? Using the key assumptions that underpin the “most likely” scenario, FEWS NET projects acute food insecurity outcomes by assessing the evolution of households’ ability to meet their minimum caloric needs over time. FEWS NET converges expectations of the likely trajectory of household-level food consumption and livelihood change with area-level nutritional status and mortality. FEWS NET then classifies acute food insecurity outcomes using the IPC scale. Lastly, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate any areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of planned – and likely to be funded and delivered – food assistance.
• How does FEWS NET analyze humanitarian food assistance? Humanitarian food assistance – defined as emergency food assistance (in-kind, cash, or voucher) – may play a key role in mitigating the severity of acute food insecurity outcomes. FEWS NET analysts always incorporate available information on food assistance, with the caveat that such information can vary significantly across geographies and over time. In line with IPC protocols, FEWS NET uses the best available information to assess where food assistance is “significant” (defined by at least 25 percent of households in a given area receiving at least 25 percent of their caloric requirements through food assistance). In addition, FEWS NET conducts deeper analysis of the likely impacts of food assistance on the severity of outcomes, as detailed in FEWS NET’s guidance on Integrating Humanitarian Food Assistance into Scenario Development. 

While FEWS NET’s projections are considered the “most likely” scenario, there is always a degree of uncertainty in the assumptions that underpin the scenario. This means food security conditions and their impacts on acute food security may evolve differently than projected. FEWS NET issues monthly updates to its projections, but decision makers need advance information about this uncertainty and an explanation of why things may turn out differently than projected. As such, the final step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is to briefly identify key events that would result in a credible alternative scenario and significantly change the projected outcomes. FEWS NET only considers scenarios that have a reasonable chance of occurrence.

Earthquake affected states, including La Guaira, Distrito Capital (Caracas), Yaracuy, and Carabobo

Substantial delivery of humanitarian food assistance through Sistema la Patria bonuses or international organizations 

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: Available information on emergency relief in the wake of the June 24 earthquakes does not currently indicate that food security outcomes are yet being mitigated. However, should support be scaled up or extended, with sufficient details available for analysis, it is likely that some or most households facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) would be able to access minimum kilocalorie needs to support improvement to Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!).