Venezuela

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Latest food security analysis
Key Message Update January - May 2026 Temporary price spikes dissipate, while seasonal trends bolster food access Download the report
  • In January, seasonal increases in income from end-of-year double salaries (aguinaldos), remittances, and labor demand around the Christmas holiday are continuing to offset food access constraints among poor households in Venezuela, despite temporary price spikes and limitations to evening economic activities reported earlier this month. However, very poor households earning income in VED with reduced access to social programs – particularly those in urban and semi-urban areas – are more vulnerable to ongoing local currency volatility, high food prices, and inflation, and are forced to rely on unsustainable coping strategies to meet their essential needs. Social safety net programs will remain a key source of food for poor and very poor households. Government revenues in foreign currency are expected to gradually recover compared to the final quarter of 2025, maintaining government expenditures and social safety net programs at levels similar to 2025. However, Comités Locales de Abastecimiento y Producción (CLAP) distributions have been limited based on reports to date.
  • In early January, changes to the Venezuelan government and associated shifts in U.S. policy toward Venezuela’s oil sector enabled the U.S.-brokered sale of approximately 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil, raising the prospect of increased export volumes and improved sale prices moving forward. According to OPEC, crude oil production fell slightly below 900,000 barrels/day in December 2025; however, it is expected to gradually increase toward 1 million barrels/day in 2026. The oil sector’s performance will depend on the evolution of external agreements, such as the easing of sanctions or revisions to licenses to operate in the country. With renewed access to global markets, oil exports and revenues are expected to gradually improve, with fiscal revenues rebounding from a low of 12 billion USD in 2025. Increased revenue in foreign currency is expected to ease exchange rates and inflation, supporting modest improvement in purchasing power in local currency.
  • The recent influx of foreign currency from U.S.-brokered sales is expected to ease inflation, although rates are likely to remain significantly elevated – similar to those in 2025 – throughout the year. Prior to these developments, the exchange rate had deteriorated to 461 VED/USD by the end of December 2025, driven by reduced USD availability amid high USD demand. Chevron's U.S. license to operate in Venezuela prohibited payment in foreign currency, thus reducing the Central Bank’s (BCV) ability to stabilize the local currency. Continual depreciation of the local currency pushed inflation rates higher, with monthly and annual inflation reaching 20 and 565 percent, respectively.
  • Government expenditure grew nearly 6 percent between 2024 and 2025 (from 16.5 to 17.5 billion USD), reflecting higher indexation of social safety net programs in response to local currency depreciation. Expenditures are projected to remain similar to 2025 levels, pending stable revenue flows. Nevertheless, access to social safety net programs is uneven. In January, the government rebranded the former Bono Contra la Guerra Económica as Ingreso contra la Guerra Económica, with continued distributions reported this month; however, CLAP distributions were only reported in some suburban areas in Caracas, reducing access to food for poor households that typically receive these boxes.  
  • Despite localized disruptions, markets are operating as is typical, and supply remains adequate from a combination of domestic production and imports. Food prices have increased in VED while remaining stable or decreasing in USD. The cost of a staple food diet (containing maize flour, rice, oil, and pasta, based on 2,100 kilocalories a day) increased 27 percent in VED between November and December 2025, and 636 percent between December 2024 and December 2025. However, prices in USD declined slightly, both month-on-month and year-on-year. Similar price increases in VED and decreases in USD were noted for preferred cereal substitutes (squash, ocumo, and cassava) and animal protein, except for sardines given the ongoing seasonal moratorium on fishing (veda) between December and March.
 Read the full analysis Actualización de mensajes clave Enero - Mayo 2026 Las alzas temporales de precios se disipan, mientras que las tendencias estacionales fortalecen el acceso a los alimentos Download the report
  • En enero, los aumentos estacionales de ingresos provenientes de los aguinaldos, las remesas y la demanda de mano de obra asociada a las festividades navideñas continúan compensando las limitaciones en el acceso a los alimentos entre los hogares pobres en Venezuela, a pesar de las alzas temporales de precios y de las restricciones a las actividades económicas nocturnas reportadas a inicios de mes. Sin embargo, los hogares muy pobres que perciben ingresos en VED y cuentan con un acceso reducido a programas sociales — en particular aquellos en zonas urbanas y semiurbanas — son más vulnerables a la volatilidad persistente de la moneda local, los altos precios de los alimentos y la inflación, y se ven obligados a recurrir a estrategias de afrontamiento insostenibles para cubrir sus necesidades esenciales. Los programas de protección social seguirán siendo una fuente clave de alimentos para los hogares pobres y muy pobres. Se espera que los ingresos del gobierno en moneda extranjera se recuperen gradualmente en comparación con el último trimestre de 2025, lo que permitiría mantener el gasto público y los programas de protección social en niveles similares a los de 2025. No obstante, según los reportes a la fecha, las distribuciones de los Comités Locales de Abastecimiento y Producción (CLAP) han sido limitadas.
  • A inicios de enero, los cambios en el gobierno venezolano y los ajustes asociados en la política de los Estados Unidos hacia el sector petrolero de Venezuela permitieron la intermediación estadounidense en la venta de aproximadamente 50 millones de barriles de petróleo venezolano, lo que abre la posibilidad de aquí en adelante de mayores volúmenes de exportación y mejores precios de venta. Según la OPEP, la producción de crudo cayó ligeramente por debajo de 900.000 barriles/día en diciembre de 2025; sin embargo, se espera que aumente gradualmente hacia 1 millón de barriles/día en 2026. El desempeño del sector petrolero dependerá de la evolución de los acuerdos externos, como la flexibilización de sanciones o la revisión de licencias para operar en el país. Con un acceso renovado a los mercados globales, se espera que las exportaciones y los ingresos petroleros mejoren gradualmente, con una recuperación de los ingresos fiscales desde un mínimo de 12.000 millones de USD en 2025. El aumento de los ingresos en moneda extranjera contribuiría a aliviar las presiones sobre los tipos de cambio y la inflación, apoyando una mejora moderada del poder adquisitivo en moneda local.
  • La reciente entrada de divisas derivada de las ventas intermediadas por Estados Unidos debería contribuir a moderar la inflación, aunque es probable que las tasas se mantengan significativamente elevadas, similares a las observadas en 2025, a lo largo del año. Antes de estos acontecimientos, el tipo de cambio se había deteriorado hasta 461 VED/USD a finales de diciembre de 2025, impulsado por la menor disponibilidad de USD en un contexto de alta demanda. La licencia otorgada a Chevron para operar en Venezuela prohibía los pagos en moneda extranjera, lo que redujo la capacidad del Banco Central de Venezuela (BCV) para estabilizar la moneda local. La continua depreciación de la moneda local impulsó un aumento de la inflación, con tasas mensual y anual de 20 y 565 por ciento, respectivamente.
  • El gasto público aumentó casi 6 por ciento entre 2024 y 2025 (de 16.500 a 17.500 millones de USD), reflejando una mayor indexación de los programas de protección social en respuesta a la depreciación de la moneda local. Se proyecta que el gasto se mantenga en niveles similares a los de 2025, siempre que los flujos de ingresos se mantengan estables. No obstante, el acceso a los programas de protección social es desigual. En enero, el gobierno cambió el nombre del antiguo Bono Contra la Guerra Económica a Ingreso Contra la Guerra Económica, con distribuciones que continuaron este mes; sin embargo, las entregas des CLAP solo se reportaron en algunas zonas suburbanas de Caracas, reduciendo el acceso a alimentos para los hogares pobres que habitualmente reciben estas cajas.
  • A pesar de perturbaciones localizadas, los mercados operan de manera habitual y el suministro se mantiene adecuado debido a una combinación de producción nacional e importaciones. Los precios de los alimentos aumentaron en VED, mientras que se mantuvieron estables o disminuyeron en USD. El costo de una dieta básica (que incluye harina de maíz, arroz, aceite y pasta, con base en 2.100 kilocalorías diarias) aumentó 27 por ciento en VED entre noviembre y diciembre de 2025, y 636 por ciento entre diciembre de 2024 y diciembre de 2025. No obstante, los precios en USD disminuyeron ligeramente tanto en la comparación mensual como interanual. Tendencias similares — aumentos en VED y descensos en USD — se observaron para sustitutos de cereales preferidos (auyama, ocumo y yuca) y para las proteínas de origen animal, con excepción de las sardinas, debido a la veda pesquera estacional vigente entre diciembre y marzo.
 Read the full analysis
More analysis reports View all Venezuela food security analysis reports Monthly analysis
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Alerts / special reports
Special Report Global May 1, 2025
Monthly analysis
Key Message Update Venezuela December 2025 - May 2026
Key Message Update Venezuela November 2025 - May 2026
Remote Monitoring Report Venezuela October 2024
Alerts / special reports
Special Report Global May 1, 2025
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