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Central America Regional Supply and Market Outlook

  • Supply and Market Outlook
  • Latin America and the Caribbean
  • December 11, 2023
Central America Regional Supply and Market Outlook

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • This report summarizes the supply and market outlook for white maize, black and red dry beans, and milled rice in Central America during the 2023/24 marketing year (MY), spanning from August 2023 to July 2024. Central America refers to Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua for this report. Mexico and Costa Rica are included because of their regional supply and trade roles.
    • Regional white maize production is anticipated near the MY 2022/23 output and slightly below the five-year average in Central America (Figure 1). Commercial production is expected to have an average performance due to higher access to irrigation and inputs; however, small farmers in the Dry Corridor are anticipated to experience crop losses due to deficit and irregular rainfall. 
    • Cumulative losses from recurrent climatic shocks and high production costs continue to hamper bean production, which is estimated below the previous MY and the five-year average (Figure 1). In Guatemala, black bean harvest is likely to fall below average due to deficit rainfall and persistently high production costs. In Nicaragua, the main red beans exporter in Central America, postrera and apante deficit rainfall and poor soil conditions are anticipated to result in lower yields and reduced crop areas, potentially affecting regional supply. 
    • White maize regional deficits are anticipated to remain close to MY 2022/23 and widen compared to the average from the progressive erosion of regional production facing climatic and production shocks (Figure 2). Declining bean surpluses in Nicaragua due to erratic and deficit rainfall, coupled with wider deficits in the rest of the region are expected to result in increased import requirements to fulfill regional consumption demand. The regional rice deficit is expected to remain close to average.
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