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Central America Regional Supply and Market Outlook

  • Supply and Market Outlook
  • Latin America and the Caribbean
  • April 20, 2017
Central America Regional Supply and Market Outlook

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • This report summarizes the supply and market outlook for white maize grain, dry beans, and rice in the Central American countries of Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua for the 2016/17 marketing year. Production and marketing in Mexico, an important source of dry beans and maize, are also discussed. Regional production for the 2016/17 marketing year (through July 2017) is expected to be average. Taking projected demand into account, the region is expected to have below-average, but sufficient maize supplies and a slightly above-average bean surplus. The region will maintain deficit in rice. 

    • El Salvador and Mexico are expected to have above-average white maize surpluses, Costa Rica is projected to have typical deficits, and Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua are expected to have sufficient maize supplies to cover domestic needs. Ample supplies and stable prices for maize on international markets will support trade flows. Maize prices are projected to stay below-average in Guatemala and El Salvador, and near average in the other countries. 

    • Bean surpluses are above-average in Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador for 2016/17, while net bean supplies in Guatemala, Costa Rica, and Mexico will be near average. Reflecting these trends, average prices are expected in Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador, and above-average prices in Guatemala, given a below-average local production in 2016. 

    • All countries are expected to have typical rice deficits in 2016/17. These supply gaps will likely be filled with imports from typical international sources, including the U.S, at stable and near average prices due to well-supplied international markets. International supplies, trade flows, government policies, and prices of maize and rice will be important to monitor, given the region’s high import dependence for both commodities, as well as regional flows of maize and beans.

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