Central America Regional Supply and Market Outlook Update

White maize supply is expected to be at near-average levels due to adequate production and import availability. Regional maize harvest is estimated to be close to average but below market year (MY) 2021/22 totals. Below-average bean production is expected, and aggregated bean supply will likely decline due to recurrent climatic shocks over three consecutive years and tighter regional availability. Milled rice supply is anticipated to remain stable compared to MY 2021/22 due to import availability.

Below-average maize and beans surpluses are expected in the region. Bean self-sufficiency is estimated to be below MY 2021/22, led by lower production in Honduras and higher local consumption. The regional rice production deficit is likely to remain stable and will be filled with regional and international imports.

Fuel and fertilizer prices continue to increase production costs, affecting food price levels. Nitrogen-based fertilizers doubled and remained significantly above average in MY 2021/22, resulting in higher staple grain prices after primera and postrera 2022.

In February 2023, staple grains wholesale prices remain above average in Central America and are expected to persist at elevated levels due to higher transportation and production costs in MY 2022/23. Additionally, a lower red bean supply in Honduras, from recurrent climatic shocks in recent years, is anticipated to increase regional demand resulting in a prolonged upward price trend for this grain.

International price trends, production and transportation costs, and trade policies will influence regional food prices in the coming months. Moreover, adverse agroclimatic conditions due to deficit rainfall could delay the start of the 2023 primera cycle and should be closely monitored to assess any negative impacts on crop areas and yields in MY 2023/24.