Spring grain crops and coffee production losses affect poor households

• Rainfall anomalies between July and August affected Primera crops, particularly in Honduras, impacting poor communities in the southern (Valle, La Paz, El Paraíso, and Choluteca) and northeastern (Olancho) regions dependent on subsistence farming activities. 

• Reported start-of-season anomalies for the second rainy season (from September through November) could affect Postrera crops (causing significant or partial damage to area planted, resulting in re-sowing crops or total losses) in a number of crop-producing areas of Honduras (Colon, Atlántida, Olancho, Francisco Morazán, El Paraíso, Choluteca, and Comayagua) and Nicaragua (León, Estelí, Managua, and Madriz).

• Coffee harvest losses for the 2013/2014 season are estimated between 20 and 40 percent. The coffee berry borer infestation (hypothenemus hampei ferrari) and falling international coffee prices could further exacerbate losses across the subregion. 

• With the expected reduction in household income due to the problems in the coffee sector and the losses of Primera crops, certain areas of Honduras will experience Stressed acute food insecurity outcomes (IPC Phase 2). However, there is Minimal acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) in El Salvador and Nicaragua, where any losses of Primera crops were localized.

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• Since the second half of September, harvests of recent grain crops are reaching markets in crop-producing areas of the region (in Honduras, Nicaragua, and El Salvador) and are thereby improving market supplies of maize and beans. As a result, market prices are beginning to decrease, in line with normal seasonal trends for this time of year.
• The most extensive damage to Primera crops in this subregion was reported primarily by Honduras, particularly affecting crops in departments in the southern region and in Olancho department in the northeast.
• Postrera crops were planted all across the subregion and are progressing normally, with no reports of any damage to date. Based on rainfall forecasts by the national weather services, crops in most parts of the region are expected to do well, which could mean an above-average harvest at the end of the year, particularly for beans.
• According to the USGS, the start of the Postrera season across the subregion in September was delayed by 20 or more days in eastern areas of Honduras and El Salvador and western areas of Nicaragua, causing localized crop losses and the need for replanting in some areas.
• To date, there are no signs of a new coffee rust outbreak. However, there are concerns regarding the behavior of climatic variables (precipitation, temperature, and relative humidity) at the end of the rainy season, which could compound damage to crops.
• International coffee prices (based on the ILO compound daily price indicator) have been steadily falling for the past year. Thus, prices dropped from US$151.28 in September 2012 to US$111.82 in September 2013, representing a 26 percent price reduction. Historically, coffee prices were at similar levels in April 2009 (US$111.61), which could imply low prices ahead for the 2013/2014 season.
• The combination of factors such as the coffee rust outbreak, infestations of coffee berry borers, and falling international prices could severely disrupt coffee-growing activities in the region. This would exacerbate the socioeconomic situation for producers, as well as for households relying on labor migration during the peak demand period, where their income-earning opportunities would be limited by the current coffee harvest.

Beginning this month, prices for staple grains in markets in the region’s countries will start to decrease, in line with normal seasonal trends for this time of year. This downward price trend will continue through the end of the year.

Based on the pattern of rainfall in the past 90 days (NOAA TRMM Total Rainfall; 1 Aug/21 Oct 2013), there has been above-normal activity, suggesting that Postrera crops will do well.

As of November, households especially hard hit by the impact of reduced coffee production will look for alternative sources of income to meet basic household needs.

EL SALVADOR. In spite of the socioeconomic effects related to losses in the coffee sector and the localized nature of any damage to Primera crops, poor households should be able to meet their food needs through the end of the year. Households are experiencing Minimal acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 1).

Table 1. Areas of El Salvador affected by anomalies

According to data presented at the PROMECAFÉ workshop in San Salvador in July, nationwide coffee production for the 2012/2013 season was down by 23.4 percent as compared to a normal year. Yet, the estimated production shortfall for the 2013/2014 season could be as large as 31 percent. To address the coffee crisis, the government is helping to revitalize coffee-growing activities by offering a number of incentives such as the National Recovery and Development Plan for Coffee-Growing Activities (US$7 million), the Integrated Coffee Rust Control Program (US$3 million), and the Integrated Recovery Assistance Project for the Coffee Sector (US$5.5 million).

WFP is coordinating a second regional study on the impact of the coffee rust outbreak in El Salvador with the Salvadoran Coffee Council (CSC), with assistance from cooperating NGOs. The study will provide more detailed information specifically related to the impact on households dependent on coffee production. This information will be used to better understand the current status of the situation and design response strategies.

HONDURAS. Because of the effects of the drop in employment in the coffee sector and the damage to Primera crops for certain areas within the dry corridor, poor households will see reduced income and are facing Stressed food insecurity outcomes (IPC Phase 2).

Table 2. Areas of Honduras affected by anomalies

Reports indicate that rainfall anomalies affected Primera crops in crop-producing areas of Olancho (the country’s leading grain-producing area) and in agricultural communities in the south (Choluteca, El Paraíso, Valle, and La Paz). Average losses of maize crops are estimated at over 30 percent. Start-of-season anomalies for the second rainy season between September and November (USGS, Onset of Rains (SOS) Anomaly Map) affected crop-producing areas in the departments of Colon, Atlántida, Olancho, Francisco Morazán, El Paraíso, Choluteca, and Comayagua. Therefore, some areas could sustain new losses to Postrera crops.

Forecasts for October 21 to 31 in the Agro-Meteorological Report by the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock-Raising (SAG) indicate negative rainfall anomalies of 20 to 60 mm in areas previously hit by rainfall deficits during the Primera season. This would put rainfall levels below the historical average, which could affect Postrera crops, particularly for poor households.

NICARAGUA. In spite of the socioeconomic effects related to losses in the coffee sector and the localized nature of any damage to Primera crops, poor households should be able to meet their food needs through the end of the year. Households are experiencing Minimal acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 1).

Table 3. Areas of Nicaragua affected by anomalies

The government is promoting black bean production by providing financing for agricultural inputs and future purchase agreements to more than 30,000 producers in the north and Autonomous North Atlantic Region (RAAN), in order to export 20,000 MT of black beans to Venezuela.

Representatives of the Nicaraguan Association of Farm Workers and the National Alliance of Coffee Growers are expecting a significant reduction in the workforce for the 2013-2014 harvest. Based on estimates developed during PROMECAFÉ workshops, this would affect approximately 111,000 jobs and impact local economies. The government will expedite its Crisol-Café program in which it provides technical assistance to restore three to 19 manzanas (one manzana equals approximately 0.7 hectare) of coffee plants per grower. This program is expected to benefit some 32,000 small and medium-size coffee producers.