Skip to main content

Employment opportunities in the coffee sector and normal Postrera harvests lead to seasonal improvements in the food security situation

  • Remote Monitoring Report
  • Latin America and the Caribbean
  • November 2015
Employment opportunities in the coffee sector and normal Postrera harvests lead to seasonal improvements in the food security situation

Download the Report

  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • Unanticipated weather events led to heavy precipitation in productive zones of the Pacific basin and central areas of El Salvador and Honduras, supporting the normal development of Postrera bean crops and, to a lesser extent, maize. As of the end of November, there remains a risk of damage to crops if rains continue, which could affect beans due to germination of the harvests or damage from fungus.

    • Red bean prices are declining in the region, and are at levels below those of the same period last year. However, maize prices are above those of last year, although declines were observed since the previous month. Price behavior for beans is attributable to government strategies to encourage production, open markets to imports, and control commercial speculation. On the other hand, maize price behavior is a result of recurrent losses due to drought that have reduced the availability of reserves in subsistence households and limited the ability to maintain sufficient national and regional commercial inventories.

    • As of mid-November, forecasts for the continuation of the ongoing El Niño indicate a 100 percent probability that it will continue throughout the remainder of 2015, with probabilities greater than 70 percent that it will continue through the March – May 2016 period. This could affect Postrera crops in some areas that planted late, primarily for maize. Furthermore, there is an elevated probability of below-average rainfall during the first quarter of 2016, primarily impacting Apante crops in Nicaragua, which could lead to reduced availability of red beans and increased prices in the region.

    • Current forecasts for the beginning of the 2016 rainy season, during the Primera planting in May, indicate that cumulative rainfall will be near average, with the decline in sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Nevertheless, it is important to consider that there is a risk for dry conditions, especially if the withdrawal of El Niño conditions is delayed more than anticipated. If this occurs, it could lead to a fourth consecutive year with crop losses during the Primera season.

    • Very poor households in dry corridor areas of southern and western Honduras that depend on staple production and the coffee sector, and on agricultural day labor, are Stressed (IPC Phase 2) due to the mitigation of outcomes driven by food assistance, favorable Postrera harvests, and employment opportunities in the coffee harvest beginning in November. These factors are also mitigating food security outcomes to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) among the most affected households in eastern and northwestern El Salvador, and in northwest Nicaragua. The number of people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in the region is expected to increase during the first quarter of 2016.

    In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

    Get the latest food security updates in your inbox Sign up for emails

    The information provided on this Website is not official U.S. Government information and does not represent the views or positions of the U.S. Agency for International Development or the U.S. Government.

    Jump back to top