Some areas remain Stressed despite the start of the Postrera harvest

• In Honduras, as a result of recurring damages to staple crops, losses during the 2014 Primera season, high prices of staple foods for prolonged periods of time, and limited employment opportunities in the coffee sector, the poorest households in Livelihood Zone 7 (Subsistence Grains and Remittances Zone) and Livelihood Zone 5 (Mountainous Coffee Zone) will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) during November 2014 through March 2015.

• In Nicaragua, the poorest households in Zone 3 (Northwest Subsistence Agriculture, Livestock and Alternative Income Activities Zone) will receive food assistance from November through December, which will place the area in Minimal (IPC Phase 1!) acute food insecurity. As a result of the harvesting of Postrera crops and the reduction in staple food prices, this Zone will be in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) from January through March.

• In El Salvador, poor households in Zone 2 (Coffee, Agroindustrial, and Labor Zone) and Zone 4 (Eastern Basic Grain, Livestock, and Remittance Zone) will be in Minimal (IPC Phase 1!) acute food insecurity from November 2014 through March 2015, with support of humanitarian assistance. The poorest households in Zone 2 will be affected by limited income from day labor in the coffee sector.

Initial forecasts of an early end to the rainy season, which could have affected the region’s Postrera crops, did not materialize. To the contrary, rainfall in some areas of the region was above-average (see figure) with good distribution, to the benefit of crop development. According to the weather outlook for Central America for the period between December 2014 and March 2015, as published by the XLV Central American Climate Outlook Forum, rainfall accumulation during the period will be normal, trending to above-average for the Atlantic coastal region and to below-average for areas along the Pacific coast. This will contribute to the normal development of the region’s Late Postrera and Apante crops, which are sown primarily in the Atlantic coastal region, which will help compensate for the production losses of Primera crops. It is expected that this will lead to the stabilization of staple food prices by the conclusion of the first quarter of 2015.

HONDURAS: The Honduran government, through the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (SAG), has implemented a number of strategies for increasing the production of Postrera cycle bean crops. These strategies include the Honduran Agro-Food Sector Reactivation Fund (Fondo para la Reactivación del Sector Agroalimentario de Honduras – FIRSA); the trust fund for providing loans to bean producers for the access to inputs; the Farm Bonus for a Better Life (Bono Agrícola para una Vida Mejor) program, which provides improved seed; and a guaranteed price (one thousand lempiras per quintal) through the Honduran Agricultural Marketing Institute (Instituto Hondureño de Mercadeo Agrícola), with the latter available to production areas in Olancho, Yoro and El Paraíso.

Overall, Postrera bean crops are developing normally. In Olancho, crops are currently in a number of different phenological stages; in Santa Bárbara, beans are drying in the pod; in Ocotepeque, crops are in the flowering stage; in the Aguán Valley, crops have already been harvested; in the Atlantic Coast region, bean plants are now flowering; in Copán, Comayagua and the Southern region of the country, harvesting will begin in the second half of November.

Postrera maize crops show good vegetative development. In Olancho, crops are in the growth stage; in Santa Bárbara, approximately 75% are in stage 1 (emergent); in Comayagua, they are in various phenological stages; and in the Southern region (Choluteca and Valle), they are in the maturation stage. Harvesting of Primera crops is underway in those areas of the country where this activity had not yet begun (Aguán Valley, Atlantic Coast, Copán and Olancho).

NICARAGUA: According to a field survey conducted by FEWS NET, in production areas located in the dry corridor in Chinandega, Estelí and Nueva Segovia, the majority of Postrera crops show normal development.

Due to the fact that the planting of Postrera crops began late (in September) and varied by area, harvesting of those crops reflects that same sequence, as a result of which it is estimated that beans in the primary production areas will be harvested in the period between late November and late December.

Field consultations carried out in production areas in Jinotega, Matagalpa, and Nueva Segovia indicate that Postrera bean crops suffered losses of between 7 and 10 percent due to excessive humidity in the month of October, which is when the greatest amount of cumulative rainfall was recorded.

Based on the findings of the working meeting convened by the Sandinista Government’s System of Production, Consumption and Commerce, the harvest of Postrera crops is projected to be quite good, despite the fact that excessive rainfall led to minor crop damage in some areas, primarily in some areas of Carazo.

EL SALVADOR: To promote the planting of Postrera bean crops, the Salvadoran government distributed 194,000 seed packets, a 22 percent increase over the amount distributed last year. With this assistance, a significant increase is expected in the current harvest as compared to last year, with anticipated production of 2.7 million quintales. The Postrera season accounts for more than 90 percent of national bean production.

The damages in approximately 63,000 hectares due to the drought led to a government intervention to reactivate production through the replanting of maize and sorghum crops on approximately 52,500 ha of land. At the same time, the government is working to design a strategy for the development of the agro-livestock sector, with the ultimate goal of increasing the quality of basic grains production and establishing a price system that will enable producers to recover their production costs and achieve a profit margin.

NICARAGUA: According to information published by the National Coffee Council (CONACAFE), production estimates for the 2014/2015 coffee harvest, which began in November, remain at a level of 1,980,000 quintales, an increase of 2.7 percent over production from the 2013/2014 harvest.

According to the Ministry of Labor (MITRAB), the legislatively mandated daily wage for coffee labor is 27.5 córdobas per can of cherries harvested (approximately 25 pounds). However, some coffee plantations in Nueva Segovia are paying 40 córdobas per can.

Coffee rust continues to affect the sector. For example, the UNAG reports a 20 percent incidence of coffee rust in coffee plantations in Nueva Segovia, which could lead to a decrease of at least 5 percent in the 2014/2015 harvest in this area.

EL SALVADOR: With the goal of reactivating the coffee sector and controlling coffee rust disease, the Salvadoran government, through the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock, created the CENTA-CAFÉ Division, a unit attached to the National Center for Agro-Livestock and Forestry Technology (Centro Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria y Forestal – CENTA). During the current year, some 12,000 small and medium-sized coffee producers received a supply of fungicides for controlling coffee rust. Preliminary data indicate that as of November coffee rust incidence remained stable at 8 percent. However, this year’s harvest is expected to be better than last year’s by approximately 1,000,000 quintales, although it will still be 38 percent below the amount harvested in 2011/2012.

HONDURAS: Although the harvest is expected to be greater than the 2013/2014 season, according to October estimates it will be approximately 15 percent below the production recorded for the record year of 2011/2012. Wages in the sector are expected to be paid at a level at least equal to the rate in effect for the 2011/2012 harvest season, given that international prices has improved since that time.

In all three countries, average prices for red beans in October reflected upward trends, despite the slight decreases recorded during the previous month as a result of flows from harvests and imports. However, prices showed significant decreases in November (see table) stemming from the beginning of the harvest of Postrera crops, which account for the greatest percentage of annual production. It is expected that the downward trend in prices will be maintained until early next year, based on current satisfactory crop development and government-provided support. 

As with the case of beans, maize prices continue a downward trend, as a result of the harvesting of Primera crops and flows from the production areas of bordering countries. This trend is expected to continue by virtue of the flows from areas where these crops were planted together with other cereal grains, as well as harvests in commercial production areas that take place beginning in November. 

In Honduras, the most vulnerable households are those located in communities in Zone 7 (Subsistence Grains and Remittances Zone) and Zone 5 (Mountainous Coffee Zone). As a result of consecutive shocks causing production losses, elevated prices of basic food commodities for more than 10 consecutive months, and the continued reduced employment opportunities in the coffee sector, these areas will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) during the period from November through March. These households have been identified by the government through its Program of Food Security during Drought Conditions (Programa de Seguridad Alimentaria por Sequía), with most of these households forced to produce on leased lands of poor quality which in addition are affected by recurrent drought conditions.

In Nicaragua, losses to Primera crops, the depletion of reserves, and limited opportunities for seasonal employment make normal access to food difficult for the poorest households in Zone 3 (Northwest Subsistence Agriculture, Livestock, and Alternative Income Activities Zone). However, this area will be in Minimal (IPC Phase 1!) acute food insecurity for November and December, due to access to humanitarian aid. As a result of the harvesting of Postrera crops and the reduction in basic grain prices, the area will be in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity from January through March.

In El Salvador, the poorest households in Zone 2 (Coffee, Agroindustrial and Labor Zone) and Zone 4 (Eastern Basic Grain, Livestock and Remittance Zone) have a high level of dependence on seasonal employment during the coffee harvest. In those production areas that have not managed to recover from the effects of coffee rust and that are still exposed to high levels of incidence of this disease, poor households continue to lack employment opportunities, reducing their income. During the period from November through March, these areas will be in Minimal (IPC Phase 1!) acute food insecurity, with the provision of humanitarian aid.