In the LAC region, unfavorable climate conditions and limited financial access continue to drive acute food insecurity.

• In Haiti, most of the country continues to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes due to agricultural yields below five-year-average, high inflation, insecurity, and limited labor opportunities. Cité Soleil in Port-au-Prince will remain in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) due to a deficit in food consumption and livelihood deterioration. The start of the spring agricultural season was disrupted by the extended dry period followed by near-average rainfall, contributing to a drop in yields. Harvests are ending, however, in Center, South Coast, North-West, and North-East, where the rains arrive later, corn, beans, and rice harvest have started. 

• Since March, the HTG has appreciated 11 percent against the USD. Despite this appreciation and the price declines, prices of basic food products remain atypically higher than the previous year (more than 50 percent for most) and the five-year average (more than 100 percent). An increase in acts of violence and kidnappings has been observed since June in Port-au-Prince, North-West, and Artibonite. The situation remains vulnerable, especially in Croix-des-Bouquets, Bon Repos, Tabarre, and Carrefour Feuille, where armed individuals attack civilian populations. This unrest continues to impact the normal functioning of markets and lead to population displacements.

• In Central America, abnormally high prices and a delay in primera harvests will exacerbate the lean season. The poorest households located in the Dry Corridor of Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras, highlands, and Alta Verapaz in Guatemala, which have less capacity to respond to previous shocks, and face a lack of food stocks below average incomes, will face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity outcomes until September, while the rest of the poor households urban and rural populations in the region will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. Starting in October, domestic harvests will lead to a seasonal drop in the prices of basic grains and an increase in labor opportunities until January 2024. However, some poor households applying Crisis coping strategies will persist in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). The rest of poor households will continue to experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity.

• Due to El Niño phenomenon, a decline in primera and postrera production for subsistence farmers is expected. The erratic and deficient rainfall, exacerbated by the atypical increase in temperatures, will continue to affect the crops of small farmers who have limited resources. These conditions will result in a decrease in their food stocks, forcing them to rely on the market earlier than usual, with food prices higher than the five-year average. Starting in October, high labor demand will improve the purchasing power of poor urban and rural households. Activities related to commerce and tourism are expected to be close to pre-pandemic levels for the first time since 2020. Irrigated agricultural activities will have average labor demand, except coffee, which will decline due to unfavorable weather conditions, resulting in a drop in income for daily laborers who depend on the volume harvested.

• In Venezuela, the informal dollarization of its economy continues to mitigate worse levels of acute food insecurity. However, high food prices and other basic needs continue to restrict adequate food consumption for poor households, who face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. The poorest households whose only source of income is in already depreciated local currency (VED) will continue experiencing gaps in their food consumption or applying coping strategies to cover their food needs, especially in cases where access to Social Protection Program benefits and international remittances is infrequent. These populations, which are usually concentrated in peri-urban areas of Distrito Capital and the states bordering Colombia, are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Seasonal improvements due to double salaries (Oct-Jan) and the availability of food from local crops at the end of the year will benefit the population, decreasing the number of households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

• As in the rest of the region, below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures will negatively affect soil moisture for crop development. Although large and medium-sized producers are expected to be able to cope with their irrigation systems, it is likely that small farmers will see reduced crop yields. Rice crops will be more affected. However, since most of Venezuela's food supply is imported, the impacts on acute food insecurity will be focalized. In July, the monthly cost of the basic diet and the diversified diet, in VED and in USD, remained stable with respect to the previous five months. However, the cost of both diets is still about 400 percent higher in VED than it was in July 2022; meanwhile, the cost in USD remained stable. During the remainder of 2023, food prices in VED are projected to be above 2022 and the five-year average. Local currency depreciation, inflation, and exchange rate fluctuations could affect VED price movements.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Latin America and the Caribbean Key Message Update. September 2023: In the LAC region, unfavorable climate conditions and limited financial access continue to drive acute food insecurity. 2023.