Prices remain high across the region, with fuel price adjustments increasing protests in Haiti

In Central America, the primera harvests are replenishing household stocks and supplying local markets . In September, the proportion of households in Crisis (Phase 3, CIF) has gradually decreased with improvements in access to staple grains. However, a portion of households in the Guatemalan Dry Corridor and in parts of Alta Verapaz is expected to continue reverting to negative coping strategies, despite seasonal improvements, given this year’s atypically long lean season, driven by lower-than-normal 2021 harvests, and the continuation of above-average transportation and food prices. Although these areas are likely to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), the majority of the region will experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through January 2023 as peak labor demand will improve access to food, stabilize food consumption, and allow households to avoid the use of negative coping strategies.

Although staple grain prices are anticipated to see modest declines given the ongoing primera and upcoming postrera harvests, they are expected to remain well above last year’s prices and the five-year averages across the region, continuing to pressure household budgets and reduce purchasing power. For the postrera season, which is now underway, the above-average prices of agricultural inputs may cause a reduction in the use of fertilizers, reducing yields, particularly among subsistence producers. In addition, above-average rainfall forecasts through the end of the year increase the risk of damage from pests and diseases; however, national-level production is not expected to be negatively impacted in the region.  

In Haiti, violent protests are ongoing in multiple cities, including the capital, since the announcement of increases in prices for gasoline, diesel, and kerosene in mid-September. These protests have reduced the population’s ability to go about their normal activities and, along with general insecurity, inflation, and declining purchasing power, continue to disrupt household access to typical sources of food and income. Worst-affected neighborhoods of Port-au-Prince, especially those under the influence of gangs, continue to experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.

In the rest of the country, areas that had below-average harvests (North-West, North-East, Upper Plateau, Upper Artibonite, West), and are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), while irrigated or semi-humid areas, which had near-average harvests are Stressed (IPC Phase 2). With spring harvests having been below-average in many areas, households have reduced capacity to finance the autumn agricultural season, as income from crop sales was insufficient for the acquisition of inputs (labor, seeds, etc.). For the remainder of the season, below-average rainfall is forecast.