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Postrera production levels are expected to be average. Heavy rainfall was from mid-September to late October caused flooding in areas in countries across the region. The flooding could have affected planting for the Postrera season. Areas where seasonal crops are likely to be most affected by the heavy rains includes those located near valleys, creeks, and low basins of the rivers and plains.
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Forecasts indicate normal or above-normal rainfall in the Atlantic basin until December. Continued high rainfall could cause crop damage during the late Postrera from January to March. High moisture levels during this period could increase the spread of pests and fungal diseases, especially in bean crops.
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Across the region, seasonal employment in coffee and sugar cane cutting has officially began. As a result, increased labor opportunities for poor households in the dry corridor is expected to improve cash flow and allow households to cover their basic food and livelihood needs. Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected in these areas.
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However, the poorest households in the dry corridor that have experienced consecutive years of below-average production due to crop damage have not fully recovered their livelihoods. Many of the same households obtained low yields for their Primera crops and losses due to the ongoing high moisture levels. As a result, the poorest households in some areas are expected to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) during the outlook period, particularly in southern and western Honduras, eastern and western El Salvador, as well as north-pacific and north-central parts of Nicaragua.
This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.