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Improved market supply of staples from Primera and Postrera harvests

  • Key Message Update
  • Latin America and the Caribbean
  • November 2016
Improved market supply of staples from Primera and Postrera harvests

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • In general, Postrera crops have developed normally. However, in localized areas that have experienced recurrent drought in the Dry Corridor (southern and southwest Honduras; western and eastern El Salvador; and the central and northern regions of Nicaragua), damages have been registered due to various factors, such as the extension of days without rain during the flowering stage, crop diseases due to excessive moisture, and the prevalence of Pulgón Amarillo (melanaphis sacchari/sorghi), in sorghum crops.
    • According to the consensus of the region’s meteorological services in the Climate Outlook Forum for Central America, normal conditions are expected for the period December 2016 through March 2017 in most of the region, with the exception of a central strip in Honduras and northern and central areas of Nicaragua, where above-average rainfall is expected. However, forecast precipitation totals remain relatively low due to the seasonality.
    • During the beginning of the 2016/2017 harvest period for coffee (October through February/March), the regional outlook for the sector is for increased production, due to reduced prevalence of coffee rust, improved distribution of rainfall and resulting improved yields, and improved agronomic practices as well as new areas under production. Furthermore, international coffee prices have increased in recent months, with the average October price of USD 1.43/pound according to the composite index of the ICO, the highest value in 21 months.
    • In Honduras, record coffee production is expected, surpassing the volume of the 2011/2012 season. In Nicaragua’s coffee sector, year-on-year growth in 2016/2017 is expected to surpass the seven percent growth of recent years. In El Salvador, production has been in decline for the past five years. However, for the 2016/2017 season, growth of 10 percent is expected, as compared to the previous season.
    • Maize and red bean prices have continued to decline, due to flows from Primera harvests since September, which have supplied regional markets. In the latter part of November, prices are expected to decrease further, due to final Primera harvests from areas cultivated jointly with beans and sesame, as well as the beginning of the Postrera harvests, primarily red beans.
    • With favorable agroclimatic conditions, improvements in the labor market in the coffee sector due to increased production and higher international prices, and declining prices for staple foods, households most affected by recent shocks in Honduras and Nicaragua are estimated to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) during the period of analysis through May 2017, whereas in El Salvador, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food security outcomes are anticipated.

    This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.

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