Normal start of Primera season rainfall and agricultural season

A regular start of the rains for the Primera season has been observed throughout most of the region, with an early start in mid-April in some parts of El Salvador and southwest Honduras. These rains brought a good flowering cycle in the coffee regions, and at the end of May it is expected that budding has started, which could mark the beginning of a good 2018/19 production season if the good weather conditions continue.

Average to below-average seasonal performance is expected for the Primera rainy season, with a decrease in rainfall starting in August. Throughout most of the region, Primera season production is likely to be near average. However, the erratic distribution of rains during the Canicula, mainly in the dry corridor, could disrupt the cultivation of staple cereals, leading to a reduction in yield in isolated, affected areas.

The International Coffee Organization’s monthly average price composite decreased by 0.4 percent to 112.56 US cents per pound in April 2018. This was the third consecutive month of decline and the lowest price in the last two years. Given the status of financial returns, coffee farmers are expected to continue to operate at low margins, driving lower wages and reduced labor demand, despite the recovery of coffee rust in most areas.

The price of corn registered an upward trend with price increases of 15 percent observed in the Tegucigalpa and Managua markets. This is likely due to the seasonal exhaustion of stocks from the previous Postrera season. The price of red beans is generally stable, although it decreased by 8.51 percent in Managua due to recent Apante harvests in Nicaragua.

Poor households in the south and west of Honduras, east and west of El Salvador, and in the north and northwest of Nicaragua have exhausted their food reserves and are entering the lean season. However, after good production of staple cereals in the 2017/2018 and the expectations for normal Primera production in most of the region, in addition to normal levels of income from casual employment, it is expected that most of these households will remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity until at least September 2018.