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- In Haiti, the intensification of violence, looting of warehouses, and closure of ports and airports in March have resulted in a reduction of market supply and an increase in food prices, increasing the number of households in and around Port-au-Prince facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes. The extent of this increase is currently being assessed. Despite a fall in annual inflation, prices, key informants report increases in all prices. When compared to the five-year average, prices of all products (both locally produced and imported) exceed 75 percent. Meanwhile, the irregular distribution and below average rainfall, as well as the atypically high prices of agricultural inputs have delayed and reduced soil preparation and sowing activities for the printemps agricultural season.
- In the Dry Corridor of Central America, northern Honduras, and the Altiplano and Alta Verapaz department in Guatemala, an early start of lean season is expected due to lack of household food stocks and atypically high household debts as labor demand declines seasonally. Throughout the lean season, these factors will lead worst-affected households to apply coping strategies such as atypical migration of household members who do not usually migrate for work, the sale of productive assets, and the reduction of expenses on essential non-food items as indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Poor rural households, who harvested and obtained income at near-normal levels during the season of high labor demand will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as they employ sustainable coping strategies such as purchasing on credit and relying on less expensive food; however, as the lean season reaches its peak in August a portion of these households will deteriorate into Crisis (IPC Phase 3). By the end of August, with the primera harvest, and seasonal decrease of prices, the food security conditions will improve for most poor households. High temperatures and below average precipitation are expected between March and April, likely delaying the start of the primera season. As the season progresses, rainfall forecasts are likely to improve to average, then above-average rainfall; however, their likely erratic distribution may result in localized crop damage and higher instances of pest and disease.
- In Venezuela, most poorer households will continue to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) due to the cumulative effects of years of poor macroeconomic conditions, despite recent reductions in inflation rates and steady food prices. However, pockets of the population – those whose income is in the local currency, and who have limited access to social programs and/or remittances – as well as small farmers in areas affected by erratic and below-average rainfall are expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through September. Monthly inflation decelerated in February to its lowest level since August 2012, due to central bank measures to stabilize the exchange rate, Chevron´s participation in the exchange market, and lower demand for USD. Despite food price stability, access to food remains limited, especially for the population of concern. Improvement in precipitation is expected throughout the country as the rainy season increases labor demand and incomes for poorer rural households; however, temperatures will remain above average, contributing to soil moisture loss.
Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Latin America and the Caribbean Key Message Update March - September 2024: In Haiti, escalating violence worsens food access and availability, while poorly distributed rainfall in Central America drives an early start to the lean season and poor macroeconomic conditions persist in Venezuela, 2024.
This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.