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Poor households will depend on food purchases for their subsistence until next harvest

  • Key Message Update
  • Latin America and the Caribbean
  • March 2016
Poor households will depend on food purchases for their subsistence until next harvest

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • The current El Niño is decreasing. In 2015, the El Niño caused a severe drought during the Primera season. Prediction models indicate neutral conditions until mid-2016. Although forecasts indicate normal rainfall accumulation during the early part of the 2016 season, the risk of a late start to the rainy season is high, which could affect planting times and the phases of crop development.

    • In the Dry Corridor of southern and western Honduras, poor farming households and day laborers most affected by last year’s drought and other agricultural anomalies will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from March onwards due to lack of food reserves and reduced seasonal income opportunities. In eastern and western El Salvador and central and northwestern Nicaragua, subsistence households and day laborers will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2!), until the end of April as food assistance is implemented by governments and international partners. In the absence of additional assistance, the most affected households will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from May until the start of Primera harvests.

    • According to the composite index of the International Coffee Organization (OIC), in March 2016 the price of coffee was at USD $1.09 per pound, or 15 percent below the same period of the previous year. The decline in the price of coffee impacted producer and day laborer incomes during the harvest from October to March. Despite the fact that the international prices is currently in recovery, higher incomes are not expected for small producers or day laborers until the 2016/17 harvest.

    This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.

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