Gang violence, extended lean season negatively affect outcomes in the region

Download Report

In Haiti, widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist due to ongoing insecurity and its associated disruption of livelihoods and market supplies. Spring harvests were also constrained by violence, high input prices, and above-average production costs, while subsistence farmers face lower-than-normal incomes amid high food prices, limiting their food consumption. Cité Soleil and the poorest households in other communes in the metropolitan area, including Croix-des-Bouquets, continue to be areas of concern, experiencing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes as violence severely restricts households’ ability to access food.
The first Kenyan police contingent of the Multinational Security Support Mission has been deployed but is not yet operational. Its current focus is on securing vital infrastructure, such as airports and oil terminals, but the overall security situation remains unstable. In July, Haiti saw an increase in kidnappings and violent incidents, compared to the relative stability observed in June, concentrated mainly in West and Artibonite departments.
In Central America, after a significant delay in primera planting, the lean season is likely to extend into September. While most poor rural households will be able to maintain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, areas throughout the region’s Dry Corridor, northern Honduras, as well as in the Altiplano and in Alta Verapaz in Guatemala are likely to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) until the primera harvest. Very poor households in these areas are employing unsustainable coping strategies – such as reducing essential non-food expenditures, atypical migration, selling productive assets, and reducing meals – due to several poor harvests in recent years, below-average income, and persistently high prices.
In October, the demand for seasonal agriculture labor for cash crops will increase in Central America. Although primera and postrera harvests are expected to be slightly below average due to erratic rainfall patterns, these harvests, and the seasonal increase in income from cash crop labor, will allow some households to reduce reliance on markets and food purchases for one or two months. Seasonal increases in food availability and access will allow many households to improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes while some areas in Guatemala worst-affected by multiple shocks will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) until January 2025.
In Venezuela, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist despite the recent stability of the exchange rate, relatively lower inflation rate, and the reactivation of economic and agriculture activities. However, pockets of population of very poor households in urban and peri-urban areas, especially in Zulia, Anzoátegui, Monagas, and Sucre, will continue to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) as they lack income sources in USD or consistent access to social programs. However, a portion of these households are likely to improve their outcomes in the following months due to seasonal factors with agriculture activities in rural areas and increased income, economic activity, and bonuses around the end of the year in urban areas.
Recent macroeconomic improvements have been driven by the foreign exchange intervention of the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV), the reactivation of oil production in association with Chevron, which increased the supply of foreign currency, and measures to increase tax collection. Improvements in the inflation rate in Venezuela are reflected in minimal changes (less than 5 percent) in the simple and diversified diets compared to May 2024, both in USD and VED. Public spending before and during national elections has improved the quality and quantity of subsidized food boxes (CLAP) and other vouchers and bonuses, improving access to food. In addition, food availability is consistent, covered by increased domestic agricultural production and imports.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Latin America and the Caribbean Key Message Update July 2024: Gang violence, extended lean season negatively affect outcomes in the region, 2024.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.