Low rainfall forecasts for the basic grain Postrera campaign

At the beginning of the Primera agricultural cycle, it was estimated that the crop production in the region would be similar to last year, however, since the beginning of July there have been prolonged periods without rain in certain areas, mainly in the dry corridor of Honduras and El Salvador, damaging crops in their flowering period. 

The perspective of the LVI Climate Forum in Central America forecasts below-normal rainfall between August and October in the region's subsistence agriculture production zones. Faced with this perspective, the forecasts of plantings and the vegetative development of the basic grains of the Postrera campaign are reserved.

The increase in oil prices, the seasonal depletion of crop stocks and price speculation due to the sociopolitical crisis in Nicaragua have led to an increase in the price of corn and beans; In Nicaragua, the greatest variations are recorded due to the high Postrera production costs of 2017 and recently the sociopolitical conflict that began in April.

The composite indicator price of coffee monthly average of the OIC of June 2018 was 110.44 US¢/Lb., the lowest since December 2013. If this trend continues it could have a negative impact on regional coffee production for the next harvest season (October-March), causing a reduction in wages and employment in the most vulnerable populations that depend on this livelihood.

Most households and all areas of the three countries are in the Minimum phase (IPC Phase 1). However, a small number of poor households engaged in subsistence farming who are recurrently affected by droughts for their basic grain production and who are unemployed are in Stress (IPC Phase 2), between July and September.