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Primera season production is expected to be average to above average

  • Key Message Update
  • Latin America and the Caribbean
  • July 2017
Primera season production is expected to be average to above average

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • The regional climate outlook for the period August – October 2017 from the LIII Central America Climate Outlook Forum indicates a likelihood for normal development of the rainy season throughout most of the Central America region, with above-average accumulation in the center of El Salvador (San Salvador, Cuscatlán, La Libertad, Chalatenango), as well as in parts of Nicaragua (Boaco and Chontales). Primera season crops are developing normally, and it is likely that harvests beginning in August will be average to above average in most of the region.

    • The favorable rainfall distribution and seasonal increase in employment opportunities and income beginning in October will permit many poor agricultural households located in the dry corridor to obtain good staple harvests and improve to a situation of Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity, particularly in the south and west of Honduras, east and west of El Salvador, and in the north-Pacific and central-northern regions of Nicaragua. However, it is likely that the poorest households who have been affected by consecutive years of poor production and limited income will remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) during the entire period, with the greatest number of people affected in Honduras.

    • For August through October, cyclonic activity is expected to be above normal, especially in the Caribbean coastal regions of Honduras and north-central Nicaragua. There is an elevated risk of impacts from cyclones or hurricanes, especially in lower valleys and along rivers, which could affect some Postrera production and coffee-producing areas. In the event of impacts from a cyclonic event, the food security situation in affected regions could deteriorate in the short term in the absence of assistance.

    This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.

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