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Parts of the Dry Corridor are at risk of damage to Primera staple crops

  • Key Message Update
  • Latin America and the Caribbean
  • July 2016
Parts of the Dry Corridor are at risk of damage to Primera staple crops

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • According to the Seasonal Monitor for Central America of July 26, 2016, rainfall accumulation during the ongoing season have been below 75 percent of the historical average (1981 – 2010) in some productive areas of the region. The lowest cumulative totals have been observed along the Pacific coast, central El Salvador, southwest Honduras and disperse areas in the center and east, and in the north, west, and North Atlantic region of Nicaragua. Taking into to account this rainfall pattern, the developmental stages of staple crops, and the length of the canícula, staple crops may experience partial or total damages in the Dry Corridor.

    • According to the forecast for August – October 2016 from the L Climate Outlook Forum for Central America, there is a probability for average to above average rainfall in most of El Salvador and Honduras, while in Nicaragua, rainfall is expected to be normal in most of the country, with below-average accumulation expected in the Autonomous Atlantic Regions (RAAN and RAAS). 

    • Expectations for regional staple production are greater than last year, due to government strategies to encourage production, such as the supply and distribution of improved inputs for maize and beans. Sewing for staple crops in most areas of the region took place in the first half of June, reaching normal vegetative development by the end of July. It is expected that the flowering stage will be reached in early August, which is a point in the season vulnerable to dry spells associated with the canícula

    • According to the composite index of the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the average Price in June 2016 was USD 1.27/pound, and in July the price increased to USD 1.33/pound as of July 21st. This most recent value is greater than July 2015 and the average for that year. Improved coffee prices may lead to increased income opportunities for producers during the upcoming harvest (October 2016 to March 2017), generating a larger quantity of jobs and greater pay in areas where people have suffered the dual shocks of drought and low employment opportunities in recent years. 

    • In southern and western Honduras, households most affected by the recent shocks are estimated to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), while in the east and west of El Salvador, as well as in affected communities in central and northwest Nicaragua, will remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). In the absence of humanitarian assistance, in some regions the most affected households during the last four years will reach Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes until September, when Primera harvests will begin and seasonal employment opportunities improve with the beginning of the coffee harvest.

    This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.

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