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The population facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes is expected to rise across the region in the coming months

  • Key Message Update
  • Latin America and the Caribbean
  • January 2024
The population facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes is expected to rise across the region in the coming months

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • In Haiti, the effects of persistent insecurity and its impacts on the economy, coupled with below-average rainfall, continue to drive high levels of acute food insecurity. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes persist in Cité Soleil due to the impacts of intensifying violence on market functionality and income-earning activities. Gang attacks and the rise in illicit road tolls imposed by these groups are also disrupting market flows across the country more broadly, exacerbating high food prices. In addition, below-average staple grain harvests resulting from irregular rainfall combined with other negative macroeconomic factors have produced Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes throughout much of the rest of the country. Despite the continued appreciation of the HTG against the USD, food prices remain high compared to the monthly, annual, and five-year averages, limiting household purchasing power. In Cap-Haïtien and Ouanaminthe departments, for instance, bean prices rose by 28 percent from October to November.
    • In Central America, the Dry Corridor region, northern Honduras, and the Alta Verapaz region of Guatemala are of highest concern. In these areas, households in the very poor wealth group suffered total agricultural losses in 2023 due to weather shocks and high production costs, and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to become more widespread in advance of the 2024 lean season. Household reserves of staple grains will run out unseasonably early, and households are expected to resort to purchasing food at atypically high prices for a prolonged time. Areas in the rest of the region are projected to experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, as the primera and postrera staple grain harvests are only slightly below average, allowing poor rural households to meet their minimum food needs. However, income earned during the season of high demand for day labor will most likely be spent unseasonably early due to inflation, placing pressure on household purchasing power that impacts their non-food needs. 
    • In Venezuela, relative improvement in macroeconomic conditions – characterized by increased USD supply and exchange rate stabilization, the expansion of social programs, and stability of the price of the basic diet – has increased poor households’ access to food in recent months. While Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to remain widespread at the state level, a decline in the number of people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is expected through February. However, an anticipated reduction in government revenue due to the expiry of oil and mineral export licenses in April is expected to lead to a decline in social programs. Given high reliance on government benefits, the population facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will most likely rise from March onward, especially in peri-urban areas of the Capital District among poor households that receive their income in local currency (VED) and have no access to remittances or social programs, and in the states bordering Colombia that are affected by weather shocks. In the areas of highest concern, including Guárico, Apure, and eastern Barinas, poor rainfall related to El Niño conditions had driven low yields among subsistence crop producers, and these rural households lack sufficient purchasing power to meet their minimum food needs.

    Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Latin America and the Caribbean Key Message Update January 2024: The population facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes is expected to rise across the region in the coming months, 2024.

    This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.

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