Violence continues in Haiti as the lean season peaks in Central America

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In Haiti, gang violence has disrupted livelihoods and market supplies, resulting in persistent Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes for many of the poorest households. Farmers have faced lower-than-normal income, and the spring harvests brought only marginal improvements in household consumption, limiting their access to food, especially in Ouest and Artibonite departments, where insecurity is more severe. Cite Soleil is facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes. Meanwhile, Croix-des-Bouquets and several communes in Nord-Ouest (Bombardopolis, Baie de Henne, Mole Saint Nicolas) are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) at the area level but are seeing pockets of households in Emergency (IPC Phase 4).
Between June and July 2024, the number of violent events (battles, explosions, violence against civilians) more than doubled nationwide, and almost tripled in the Ouest department. In addition, clashes between armed gangs and the Haitian National Police along National Route Number 2 are disrupting public transport on this stretch, particularly the flow of local products from the Grand Sud to the capital and vice versa in the case of imported products. Insecurity has also led to an increase in the number of internally displaced persons (IDPs), who have mostly taken refuge with relatives or host families in the same commune, putting considerable pressure on the limited resources of host households and exacerbating existing vulnerabilities.
In the Central American Dry Corridor, northern Honduras, Alta Verapaz and Altiplano in Guatemala, very poor rural households will face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through September 2024 until the primera harvests improve access to food. These households are likely reducing food consumption and employing unsustainable coping strategies as a result of below-average income-generating opportunities, erratic rainfall, consecutive crop failures, a prolonged lean season and, therefore, prolonged reliance on markets, and atypically high food prices. From October 2024 to January 2025, many of these households will move to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as post-harvest food availability and seasonal labor migration opportunities improve food availability and access.
Erratic precipitation has caused above-average rainfall accumulations in eastern Honduras, Pacific Nicaragua, and some areas in Guatemala, resulting in floods and landslides, as well as rainfall deficits in western Honduras, northern El Salvador, central Nicaragua, and northern Guatemala. Climate forecasts suggest that these conditions will persist, raising the likelihood of pests and diseases, which, along with excess rainfall in some areas, could cause localized crop damage and losses. Overall, subsistence farmers´ production, especially for beans, is likely to be slightly below average; however, commercial production will remain close to average.
In Venezuela, despite economic progress, such as a decrease in inflation, exchange rate stability, and the reactivation of key economic sectors, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes persist. However, a portion of very poor households, mainly concentrated in urban and peri-urban areas, especially in Zulia, Anzoátegui, Monagas, and Sucre, continue to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes due to the insufficient income in USD and a lack of consistent coverage by social programs.
Public spending reached 60.7 billion VED (1.66 billion USD) in July – less than expected – and, as of August 23, it has decreased to 43.5 billion VED (1.19 billion USD), following the presidential elections. Still, funding for social programs has continued, helping to maintain purchasing power and access to food. Stabilization of the macroeconomy has eased household budget pressures: food prices for the diversified and basic diets remained stable in VED and USD in July and annual and monthly inflation dropped to 43.6 and 0.7 percent, respectively, in the same month. Food availability has improved thanks to increased imports between January and May and the recovery of domestic agricultural production, supported by irrigation. Heavy rains have broadly benefitted the country, but several areas have registered rainfall deficits, including Falcón, Lara, Anzoátegui, Monagas, Portuguesa, and Cojedes, without negative impacts to crop development.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Latin America and the Caribbean Key Message Update August 2024: Violence continues in Haiti as the lean season peaks in Central America, 2024.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.