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Food insecurity likely Minimal through March 2013

  • Remote Monitoring Report
  • Honduras
  • October 2012
Food insecurity likely Minimal through March 2013

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  • Key Messages
  • Projected Outlook through March 2013
  • Key Messages
    • Food insecurity will remain Phase 1: Minimal (IPC 2.0) at least through the end of the projection period in March 2013 due to likely near-average Postrera harvest, as well as average prices and income from wage labor.

    • Postrera crop development and rainfall will likely be slightly below average in some surplus-producing areas of Olancho and Colón, as well as in subsistence areas of the South. Despite this, harvests are likely to be near average.

    • In the South, below-average harvests and above-average purchases are likely to lead to an early start of the lean season around April instead of May as is usual.   

    ZONE

    CURRENT ANOMALIES

    PROJECTED ANOMALIES

    National

    • Government input support for the 2012 Postrera was lower than in the previous two years. 
    • Postrera area planted increased in September and is now near average.
    • August - September rainfall was below average, but October rains picked up in most areas, normalizing plant vigor.
    • Forecasts suggest below-average rainfall for the rest of the Postrera season across the country with a normal cessation of the rainy season in early November.  

    South (Choluteca,  Valle)

    • Field reports indicate below-average area planted.

     

    Central Olancho and northern coast

    • Crop yields may be below average, particularly in central Olancho.

    Projected Outlook through March 2013

    The Postrera harvest comes in December, mainly for red beans. In general, rainfall since mid to late-September has been near average and well distributed. The forecast for the rest of the season estimates below-average rainfall with a normal end of the rains in early November. This is similar to 2009, when national production was approximately 90 percent of the 2007-2011 average (despite localized losses in the South). Input support this year is lower than in 2011 and 2010, as is the area planted, though both are better than 2009. As a result, FEWS NET anticipates that 2012 Postrera production will be near the five-year average. This analysis assumes no major late-season storms.

    Prices in Tegucigalpa and San Pedro Sula for red beans and white maize were relatively stable or declining in September and continue to decline seasonably in October. September red beans and white maize prices were 10 – 25 percent below 2011 levels and near or below the five-year average. High prices for U.S. and global yellow maize for 2012/13 have stabilized below those of white maize; they are therefore unlikely to result in increased prices of white maize. Near-average Postrera harvests will likely result in average seasonal price trends through February/March 2013 (stable/declining).

    The demand for unskilled labor is expected to be average to above average due to significant increases expected in coffee production of almost 40 percent compared to October 2011. This will more than compensate the price drop of about 33 percent over the same time period. Estimates from the Instituto Hondureño del Café (IHCAFE) indicate a relatively low prevalence of coffee rust, with no significant impact on harvests likely in the near future.

    Food insecurity will remain Phase 1: Minimal (IPC 2.0) at least through the end of the projection period in March 2013 due to likely near-average Postrera harvest, as well as average prices and income from wage labor.

    South (Livelihoods 5, 8)

    Postrera planted area is below average due to low Primera production and reduced government input support compared to the previous two years. Rainfall in 2012 is expected to continue to be better-distributed than in the 2009 and over significantly larger planted areas. 2012 Postrera harvests in this area, which comprise a significant portion of poor households’ food consumption between January and March, are likely to be 80 percent of the 2007-11 average or better in the South. Below-average harvests and above-average purchases are likely to lead to an early start of the lean season around April instead of May as is usual.   

    Central Olancho and Colón

    Below-average rainfall and crop development is expected to continue in these surplus-producing areas through the end of the Postrera season. Water requirement modeling indicates that current crop development is consistent with or better than that for the 2009 analogue rainfall year. Slightly below-average Postrera production in these areas will likely be the primary reason for which Honduras’s harvests will be near average rather than above average. 

    Figures Seasonal Calendar in a Typical Year

    Figure 1

    Seasonal Calendar in a Typical Year

    Source: FEWS NET

    In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

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