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Food insecurity likely Minimal in 2013

  • Remote Monitoring Report
  • Honduras
  • January 2013
Food insecurity likely Minimal in 2013

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  • Key Messages
  • Projected Outlook through June 2013
  • Key Messages
    • Acute food insecurity is likely to be in Phase 1: Minimal (IPC 2.0) throughout the projection period, June, as Postrera harvest resulted in near average national production and households are meeting their food and nonfood expenditures from an above to average income and accessible food prices. The lean season will normally begin in April. 

    • Coffee rust prevalence is three to four times higher than the normal, manageable range. Labor demand for maintenance activities to mitigate coffee rust and to meet the increment in coffee production is likely to be slightly above average from January to April/May.

    ZONE

    CURRENT ANOMALIES

    PROJECTED ANOMALIES

    Coffee-producing areas (Livelihoods 3, 6, 7, 11, 15)

    • Coffee rust prevalence is three to four times higher than average.
    • Slightly above-average labor demand between January and April for coffee rust treatment.

    Projected Outlook through June 2013

    Staple food prices are seasonally stable and have slightly decreased from November to December. Retail red beans prices are 8 to 12 percent below November prices and about 20-30 percent below last year and the five-year average. Retail white maize prices have been stable since November but are 10 to 15 percent above December 2011 prices and 15 to 20 percent above the five-year average. This is due in part to a low average price from 2011’s high maize production.

    Animal feed and processed white maize flour industries recently received a single, maritime import of 200,000 MT of white maize, even though national production is still available. This is unusual given that agreements between the industrial sector, producers, banks and the government promote the purchase of national production when available. An increase in supply will likely reduce demand for local maize and contribute to stabilize or lower consumer maize prices in the near future. Drops in producer prices are not likely to have a significant impact on food security for poor households as maize is not a major Postrera crop. Prices are expected to follow normal seasonal trends, remaining relatively stable until March and rising between April and July/August. Labor demand for sugarcane and coffee harvests and other key sectors is average.

    A near-average Postrera harvest along with average-to-good income from unskilled labor and relative stable food prices are likely to result in a Phase 1: Minimal (IPC 2.0) acute food insecurity through the projection period (June 2013). The lean season will begin normally in April.

    Livelihood zone 2: Agriculture Production

    The Apante season produces approximately 10 to 15 percent of the national annual red bean harvest. Though a few farms produce crops during this season in other areas using irrigation systems, the largest share of Apante crops are the rainfed crops only produced in this northern part of Honduras in Atlántida and Colón with rainfall from the Caribbean. Apante crops are generally produced for sale rather than for own consumption. Apante season crops, which are sown in December and harvested in February, have been planted. Though some rainfall estimates based on satellite imagery indicate below-average rainfall since the start of the season in December, analysts suggest that the models may under-estimate the coastal rainfall. Field reports also suggest that crop development is average. The regional forecast and forecast updates (IRI, ECMWF) anticipate average rainfall for the remainder of the season.

    Coffee-producing areas (Livelihood zones 3, 6, 7, 11, 15)

    Current labor demand is above average as a result of the dramatic growth of the sector in the last two years. Payment for coffee beans collectors is similar to last year. Income from coffee labor is likely to be average to good.

    Coffee rust prevalence has been three to four times higher than the normal, manageable prevalence of 10 percent since November 2012. The most affected departments are Ocotepeque, Copán, Intibucá, Lempira, La Paz, Comayagua and El Paraíso. Though the risk to production from coffee rust will be greatest for the 2013/14 harvest, some slight damage to the current harvest and grain quality is likely. Despite this, estimates for the current, 2012/13 harvest are still above the five year average and near last year’s record harvest. Labor demand for maintenance activities to mitigate coffee rust damage to the 2013/14 harvest is likely to be slightly above average from January to April/May. Close monitoring of coffee rust control measures is needed to assess the effects of coffee rust on 2013/14 production and its impacts on labor demand.

    Figures Seasonal Calendar for a Typical Year

    Figure 1

    Seasonal Calendar in a Typical Year

    Source: FEWS NET

    In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

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