Acute food insecurity minimal through the end of the consumption year

• Acute food insecurity is likely to remain Minimal (Phase 1, IPC 2.0) through the end of the consumption year. Due to average to good income levels and accessible food prices, poor households are meeting their food and nonfood needs. These favorable conditions are likely to sustain poor households, even with the onset of the lean season in April.

• Coffee rust prevalence is three to four times higher than normal in some areas. About 25 percent of coffee plants are affected nationally. As a result, the 2013/2014 harvest and labor demand are likely to be significantly reduced.

As indicated in the Figure 2 below, February prices for red beans have been stable and their recent history of low prices has favored affordability and greater access for poor households. Above-average white maize prices are being influenced by low stocks in the markets as production was lower during the Primera harvest and near average during the Postrera. Informal reports indicate that current stocks levels are lower than last year due to better production in 2011 than 2012. In general, food prices will follow a normal season trend—relatively stable until March and rising between April to August. White maize prices will likely continue increasing slightly from February to March, following normal seasonally price trends. 

Labor demand for the coffee harvest is average to good and is finalizing in February, even though in some areas the harvest may continue through March. Labor demand in other key sectors remains average. The peak of the labor season will end in March.

Accessible food prices, coupled with average to good income levels from the peak of the unskilled labor season, will assist poor households in meeting their food and nonfood needs through the end of the consumption year. Therefore, Minimal (Phase 1, IPC 2.0) acute food insecurity is expected, even with the onset of the lean season in April. Rainfall forecasts suggest a normal start to the rainy season in April/May.

Livelihood zone 2: Agriculture Production

The Apante season occurs only in northern areas of Honduras and generally produces 10 to 15 percent of the national annual red beans. The majority of beans produced are for sale rather than own consumption. Red beans crops during the Apante season have yielded average levels of production despite below-average rainfall estimates from satellite imagery, although analysts suggest that the models may be underestimating the coastal rainfall. For example, the Atlántida and Colon departments depend exclusively on rainfall and had normal production levels. The Apante harvest will occur between February/March and regional forecasts and updates (IRI, ECMWF) anticipate average rainfall for the remainder of the season.

Coffee-producing areas (Livelihood zones 3, 6, 7, 11, 15)

Current labor demand during the peak of the harvest is average to above average but will cease by the end in February or early March. Income for coffee harvesters is at normal levels and similar to last year. Near-term labor demand for coffee rust treatment and maintenance activities is likely to be slightly above normal until April/May. The government has issued a national phytosanitary emergency alert to raise awareness and launch a national strategy to combat damages to coffee plants. Estimates for long-range reduced labor demand are unclear, yet a decline is expected for the 2013/2014 harvest.

The National Coffee Association and the Honduran Institute continue to monitor coffee rust prevalence, which as of November 2012 has presented three to four times higher than normal levels. In addition, Anthracnose disease prevalence has increased because of the coffee plants’ low resistance. Analysts estimate that the severity of damage to leaves on coffee plants from rust is approximately 25 percent nationally and that the prevalence will reduce the 2013/2014 harvest by at least 10 to 15 percent compared to the current harvest. Initial estimates suggest this decline will negate the previous growth the sector has seen in recent years. Some farms are showing even higher prevalence. The most affected departments are Ocotepeque, Copán, Intibucá, Lempira, La Paz, Comayagua and El Paraíso. In addition to decreases in production volume, it is likely there will be a reduction in quality of plants harvested.