Erratic rainfall and high temperatures threaten 2026 crop yields

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In October 2024, FEWS NET projected that, through May 2025, the highest area-level IPC Phase classification in Honduras would face widespread Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, with an estimated 500,000-999,999 people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and in need of humanitarian food assistance. Despite localized crop losses from Tropical Storm Sara, food security seasonally improved between October 2024 and February 2025 due to increased household stocks from the primera and postrera harvests, seasonal declines in staple grain prices, and higher agricultural labor demand that supported food access. However, conditions were projected to deteriorate again from February through May 2025 during the lean season, as reduced employment opportunities from poor coffee and sugar cane harvests, limited carryover stocks, and rising food prices would strain household access to food, leaving poor households in the Dry Corridor, repeatedly affected by weather shocks, to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).  
The primera season began in May 2025 under generally favorable conditions, with average rainfall forecasts and improved soil moisture following the March atypical dryness and heat stress. These conditions supported early crop development; however, planted areas declined slightly due to persistently high input costs and lower maize prices. Fertilizer and fuel prices remained elevated, increasing production costs and limiting planting options. Between June and July 2025, irregular rainfall and an early dry spell in the Dry Corridor stressed maize and bean crops, reducing yields for subsistence farmers in particular. These weather shocks compounded existing vulnerabilities from previous crop losses and high production costs, leaving poor households with limited reserves and heightened dependence on market purchases. 
As the second rainy season ends in November 2025, Honduras transitions between the primera and upcoming postrera harvest, typically bringing seasonal improvement to food availability. However, in the Dry Corridor, conditions remain concerning, as household food stocks dwindle due to the erratic rainfall and above-average temperatures that disrupted planting, causing a staggered primera harvest and extending the lean season. These irregular rainfall patterns and above-average temperatures during the 2025 primera and postrera seasons significantly reduced red bean yields in 2025, compounding vulnerability across the Dry Corridor. The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects maize production at 690,000 metric tons for the 2025/26 season, slightly below the previous marketing year, reflecting ongoing weather stress and high input costs.  While the recent primera harvest has eased some market pressure, household reserves in the Dry Corridor are limited, leaving them highly dependent on markets. 
Staple grain prices decreased in November following the end of the primera harvest in October, particularly for white maize and beans. Despite this seasonal decrease, white maize and red bean prices both remain nearly 30 percent higher than the five-year average, due to high input costs, delayed planting, irregular rainfall during the primera season, and Tropical Storm Sara-driven losses from the previous postrera harvest, which affected storage quality and carryover stocks. Headline inflation has moderated, and annual food inflation remains below 5 percent. However, elevated staple grain prices continue to strain household purchasing power. Seasonal labor income from coffee harvests will provide modest improvement in purchasing power through early 2026; however, as the lean season begins in April 2026, poor households in the Dry Corridor will face prolonged market dependence, keeping food access constrained.  
Average rainfall is expected in the eastern areas of Honduras through January 2026; however, erratic rainfall distribution and above-average temperatures through March will likely stress crops in Dry Corridor areas with limited irrigation, reducing basic grain yields for smallholder farmers.  Recent conditions have caused atypical dryness in southeastern and central Honduras, alongside localized flooding throughout the country. 
The coffee harvest season through March 2026 is expected to provide seasonal labor opportunities, though slightly below-average production may limit income generation.  Nonetheless, wages are projected to remain stable, supporting food access for labor-dependent households through early 2026.  Income from agricultural labor and remittances will continue to support household purchasing power, especially during the end-of-year season.  As a result, most poor households are expected to maintain minimally adequate food consumption through March 2026, though dietary diversity will remain low and non-food needs will be difficult to meet, particularly for subsistence farmers. 
Food security conditions in Honduras are expected to deteriorate further from April 2026 as the lean season begins. Subsistence farmers in the Dry Corridor will face depleted food stocks and reduced income sources as seasonal labor declines, limiting their ability to meet their basic needs. These pressures will force poor and very poor households to rely on credit, reduce non-essential spending, and adopt negative coping strategies to secure food and other essentials.  As these conditions persist into the lean season, humanitarian food assistance needs are expected to increase in vulnerable areas, especially the Dry Corridor.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Honduras Key Message Update November 2025: Erratic rainfall and high temperatures threaten 2026 crop yields, 2025.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.