Haiti Supply and Market Outlook

Total projected cereal production (maize, rice and sorghum) for 2019/2020 is expected to decrease by almost 12.3 percent compared to 2018/2019 but will exceed the five-year average by about 8 percent. Observed losses for 2019/2020 are significantly lower than those recorded between 2014/2015 and 2017/2018. Maize and rice will experience the most significant reduction in production levels. Overall decline in cereal production is due to the negative impact of a poor spring season harvest on subsequent summer and fall growing seasons.

Total cereal supply (production + net imports), i.e. 1,400,000 metric tons (MT), is expected to decrease year on year due to the combined negative effect of reduced local cereal production and increased cereal imports (excluding maize), as the effect of reduced production on supply is greater than the effect of increased cereal imports on supply. However, cereal supply is expected to be almost 4 percent above the five-year average. Imported cereals, particularly rice and wheat, will continue to dominate in the national cereal market.

A cereal production deficit of more than 42,000 MT will be observed during the 2019/2020 marketing year, although, compared to the five-year average, a surplus of more than 73,000 MT is expected. The Gonaïves (Artibonite) market will maintain its surplus producing status for the three commodities, even with the expected decline in overall cereal production. Other regions will have to rely on imports, particularly for rice, to cover cereal deficit.

Cereal prices are expected to maintain their upward trajectory throughout the outlook period. They will also remain atypically high compared to the five-year average due to exchange rate depreciation, the decline in production and the possible withdrawal of fuel subsidies. Furthermore, civil insecurity, fueled by socio-political instability, will increase the risk of riots, which could jeopardize market functioning for staple foods throughout the country, particularly in the metropolitan Port-au-Prince area.