Supply and Market Outlook

The 2018/2019 cereal production (rice, maize and sorghum) estimates for Haiti point toward an increase that is marginally above the 5-year average. This slight rebound will be due to increased production of sorghum and rice, primarily in the Artibonite region, which supplies about 89 percent of annual production. 

Total cereal supply (production and net import) is expected to fall relative to the previous marketing year levels owing to lower rice and maize imports. Market supply for imported cereals, particularly for rice, will nonetheless remain adequate as this decline is less significant relative to five year average levels.

Local markets will therefore be well supplied. The cereal deficit will be low compared to the average. The Gonaïves market in Artibonite will have a substantial food surplus due to an increase in rice and sorghum production.Other regions within the country will have to import cereals to cover their cereal needs.

Imported rice prices are expected to remain stable, with slight fluctuations between November 2018 and May 2019. Imported rice prices will remain above the five year average levels partly owing to currency depreciation. Local rice (TCS 10) prices will ease through November 2018, after which they will begin to increase again. While local rice (TCS 10)  prices are not expected to reach the levels observed in July and August 2018, they will remain significantly above the 5-year average.

The uncertainty fueled by tensions within the PetroCaribe alliance will continue to weaken socio-political stability and increase the risk of riots, which could jeopardize the stability of staple food markets.